Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.
After watching transmission rates and cases rise over the past week, it came as no surprise that Mayor Breed and Public Health Director Colfax decided to cut back on indoor activities likely to increase the spread of the virus. Unlike other areas of the country, they didn’t wait until things got totally out of control.
No cutback in Burgers were announced.
Winter in San Francisco doesn’t begin to approximate winter elsewhere, but with the cooler weather and the risising numbers, here’s an interesting take on social/physical distancing from Peter Khoury at the Phoenix Data Project.
It’s Wednesday, which means Art in the Park.
Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come.
The Mission remains the neighborhood with the highest number of Covid-19 cases in the City. On November 8, DPH attributed 1848 positive cases here, or a rate of 31 cases per 1000 residents.
Transmission rates continue to rise throughout California. Remember there is a lot of uncertainty factored into R number models. Estimates for San Francisco’s R number range from a very low .88 to a very high 1.62. The model we mainly rely on estimates our local R number around 1.5, making SF the second highest county in the state.
Case numbers continue to rise. Yesterday Public Health Director Colfax said there had been a 250 percent rise in cases since early October. According to available DPH data, cases rose from 11,501 on October 1 to 13,209 today. Though I am not a data scientist, and often struggle with long division, by my calculation that should be a rise of approximately 13 percent. What am I missing? For the week ending November 3, the Citywide seven-day average number of daily cases rose to 63 or 7.2 cases per 100,000, which is high enough.
Cases among the White population are the most notable in the recent increase.
California’s positivity rate continues its upward trend.
With rising case numbers, it’s only a matter of time that hospitalizations will rise, as we’ve seen in other parts of the country. The most current weekly rate of hospitalizations for Covid positive patients was 10 percent, while absolute numbers of confirmed and suspected Covid patients remained below 40. For the week ending November 9, the seven-day average percentage of ICU beds available remained at 34 percent, while Acute Care availability dropped a percentage point to 23 percent.
Most cases (60 percent) are people 40 and younger. Only 6 percent are people older than 70. Men continue to account for the majority of cases (54.1 percent) and almost two-thirds of the deaths (64 percent)
Colfax was referring to daily average case numbers when he said there had been a 250 percent rise in cases since early October. Our lowest 7 day average was around 30 cases a day, and we’re back up over 75 now. (Although a 250 percent *increase* would suggest 105, not 75.)
The 250% rise is in new cases, not total cases. When starting form a really low number (at one point we had 10 new cases a day), it’s pretty easy to go up that much! Not a good trend at all though.