The “Overpaid CEO” business tax increase is still on track to lose after Thursday’s release of another 15,000 ballots.
The measure, which would raise taxes on businesses whose top executive makes more than 100 times its median employee, was failing by a 55 to 45 margin on election night. In today’s vote drop, that ratio was more or less maintained: 54 percent of voters oppose the tax increase, while 46 percent favor it.
The Department of Elections still has to count 128,000 votes, about half of all ballots cast.
Regardless, today’s news was not good for the measure. While it needed more yes votes than noes to overcome that 10-point deficit, in today’s ballots it merely lost by less.
The measure was placed on the ballot by San Francisco labor unions to raise revenue for the city, which currently has a $600 million budget deficit. Because of the large deficit, the mayor has laid off 127 people, many of whom were union employees, and eliminated over 400 unfilled positions. And, since the city is still projected to have a deficit next year, more layoffs and cuts may be on the table.
Opposing the measure were the city’s business community and Mayor Daniel Lurie, who has been working to fill the city’s vacant storefronts. They worried that a business tax increase would lead to businesses leaving the city or being reluctant to open here. They also pointed to Prop. M, a 2024 overhaul of San Francisco’s business tax structure, that was supposed to create a predictable system.
Though 15,000 votes is not many — only about 6 percent of the total turnout — Prop. D’s path to victory is narrowing. To win, it will have to win the remaining 128,000 votes by at least a 55 to 45 margin. While this is mathematically possible, it is not particularly plausible.
While more progressive voters typically vote late and have their votes counted late, an inordinate number of San Franciscans this year turned in their ballots in the election’s waning hours. These voters, more than prior years, likely hail from across the city’s ideological spectrum, making it difficult to predict voting patterns as hundreds of thousands of ballots are counted. It also renders dramatic late shifts less likely.
“There are still over 120,000 votes to be counted,” said a game Scott Mann, the Yes on D spokesman. “And we are hopeful that San Franciscans won’t let corporate checkbooks have the last word.”
