Update: The 9:45 p.m. update only added 7,700 ballots. Subsequent updates are due at 10:45 p.m. and then a final report sometime thereafter. The number of outstanding ballots will be announced on the morning of June 3.
And, at last, the early results are in.
The first tranche of San Francisco votes is 100,817 ballots, representing just shy of 19 percent of the city’s registered voters. Results, thus far, have been lopsided. While it’s unclear how many more votes are coming, it’s unclear any realistic number will change these results.
Backers of Prop. A, the earthquake bond, were on pins and needles about their measure. As recently as three weeks ago, it was polling a few points below the required two-thirds threshold. But among early voters, a full 76.3 percent are in favor of the big bond — a nearly 50,000-vote delta.
While it’s early, that is a huge margin and it’s difficult to foresee this lead being relinquished. “We are pleased with the early returns,” texts firefighter union head Sam Gebler.
Prop. B, which would limit mayors and supervisors to two lifetime terms, is ahead by a 56-44 margin. With not quite 11,000 votes separating the measures, it’s implausible that this result will change, but not impossible.
Prop. C, the Chamber of Commerce-spun business tax measure meant to sink Prop. D, is failing with only 36 percent of the vote.
But Prop. D, the labor-backed “Overpaid CEO Tax,” is also behind, with just 43 percent of the vote. It trails by around 13,000 votes, meaning the number of outstanding ballots is paramount.
In the congressional race, Sen. Scott Wiener was first across the finish line with 43 percent of the vote. Connie Chan came second at 28 percent — more than double Saikat Chakrabarti’s 13.5 percent. There is also a nearly 13,000-vote delta between Chakrabarti and Chan, with only the top-two moving on to November’s primary.
Of note, Wiener’s tally of 37,562 votes is slightly more than the total votes earned by Chan (24,276) and Chakrabarti (11,689).
In both the district races, the incumbents are holding commanding leads: District 2 supervisor Stephen Sherrill has 71 percent of the vote to Lori Brooke’s 29 percent, and a 3,705-vote lead. In District 4, Alan Wong earned 52 percent of the first-place votes, and, following ranked-choice voting, bested Natalie Gee by a 72-23 tilt and 4,103 votes.
If these tallies hold up, Wong would win even without ranked-choice voting. Back-of-the-envelope math from San Francisco State University political science professor Jason McDaniel, an expert in ranked-choice voting, said that the remaining ballots would have to sharply diverge for Wong to relinquish his lead.
“By my quick calculations, if there are 20,000 votes remaining, Gee would need 60.3 percent of the final round tabulation votes,” he says. “At 10,000 outstanding ballots, Gee would need 70.5 percent of the final round votes.”
If there are just 8,000 ballots outstanding, 75.6 percent of the votes would need to go to Gee. This, he surmises, is “unlikely.”
School board president Phil Kim is also holding a commanding lead, with nearly 65 percent of the vote, compared to challengers Virginia Cheung at 24 percent and Brandee Marckmann at 11. In the superior court judge race, prosecutor Phoebe Maffei has 62 percent of the vote to public defender Alexandra Pray’s 38 percent.
The next round of votes is due to drop at 9:45 p.m., then 10:45 and then a final update later on.
