Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.

Infection numbers, and positivity rates, though high, most likely reflect delays in reporting from formal test sites. Hospitalizations are up some, as expected, and R Number models continue to show rapidly increasing transmissibility.

How can you “follow the science” if you have no data, or if the data you do have is patchy and inadequate? For the past year, the U.S. has been “flying blind,” as the data collected (or not) by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control has been woefully inadequate. In a small, concentrated setting, where digital dinosaurs reign, the haphazard covid data we get is not much better though we do get interesting data crumbs on occasion. It could be worse. What if the San Francisco Department of Public Health has no better data than they let out?

After getting a load of criticism for once again making policy recommendations based on no or faulty data, the CDC may change its guidance on isolation after testing positive. Hold on. It may have to check with Delta Airlines first.

Of course, whatever isolation protocols the CDC comes up with won’t make much difference to those who can’t afford to miss work and are not given paid time off by employers.

Here’s a long thread on the current situation in the UK health system. Though Tories and others have been trying for years to destroy the National Health System, it still survives and, even in a weakened state, with Clown Prince Boris Johnson in control, what a difference.

Isn’t there a name for when you keep doing the same thing over and over again even though it doesn’t work?

Right wing Republicans don’t have data, but they do have a lavishly financed, and focused, political machine.

Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from the San Francisco Department of Public Health. As of Jan. 1, DPH reports more than 88 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and over 81 percent have received two. For residents 5 and older, DPH reports the figures rise above 90 percent and above 85 percent and over 90 percent of those 65 and older have received two doses. SFDPH reports that as of Dec. 30, approximately 382,788 residents (54 percent of all residents) have received a COVID-19 booster dose including 75 percent of residents 65 and over, 63 percent for those 50-64, 58 percent for those 35-49 and 44 percent for those 16-34. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

On Dec. 27, DPH reports covid hospitalizations rose to 63 , or about 7.2 per 100,000 (based on an 874,000 population). The ICU population rose by 2. Note: DPH cannot report how many are in the hospital for covid, and how many are in the hospital for another reason and tested covid positive upon entrance. Nor is the Department able to report on the number of vaxxed and unvaxxed covid patients.

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 7 covid patients and 6 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 5 covid patients and 6 ICU beds available. Of 49 reported covid patients, 32 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 52 ICU beds available among reporting hospitals (which does not include the Veterans Administration). The California DPH currently reports 70 covid patients and  102 ICU beds available in San Francisco.

Note: DPH uses dated population figures for neighborhoods. The Mission has once again become ground zero for covid infections in the City. Between Oct. 30 and Dec. 28, DPH recorded an eye-popping 878 infections among Mission residents, or 149 infections per 10,000 residents. Only two other City neighborhoods, Marina and Sunset/Parkside have more than 600 infections. The Marina continues to have the highest rate, with 241 infections per 10,000 residents, followed by Mission Bay, Russian Hill, Hayes Valley, FiDi/South Beach, Poterero Hill, Pacific Heights, SOMA, Haight Ashbury, North Beach and Lone Mountain. Lakeshore, the only City neighborhood with a vaccination rate below 50 percent, has the lowest infection rate at 66 infections per 10,000 residents.

On Dec. 25, the 7-day average of daily new infections recorded in the City was 616 or approximately 70.4 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). The 7-day average infection rate among vaccinated residents was 69.6 per 100,000 vaccinated residents and for unvaccinated residents,  92.9 per 100,000 unvaccinated residents. Though the unvaxxed are clearly at more individual risk of infection, given the high number of vaxxed residents, the great majority of recorded infections are among those who have received at least two doses of The Vaccine. Perhaps it’s time to stop calling them “breakthrough infections”. DPH provides no data on infections among those boosted.

As of Dec. 26, 63 percent of SF White residents had received a booster, Asians 57 percent, Blacks 40 percent, Native American 39 percent, Latinxs 37 percent, and 35 percent of Pacific Islanders have received the booster.

As of Dec. 28, Latinx residents have a 9.3 percent positivity rate so far in December, while Native Americans have 8.7 percent, Multi-racials 7.8 percent, Whites 7.5 percent, Pacific Islanders 7.3 percent, Blacks 6.9 percent and Asians have a 5.5 percent positivity rate so far in December.

R Number models continue to suggest more exponential growth in our near future.  Covid R Estimation kept its San Francisco R Number to a very high 2.2 (now the second highest in the state after San Mateo) and estimates the California R Number at 1.8. The ensemble raised its average for the  San Francisco R Number to 1.88, while posting an average California R Number of 1.78.

Without specifying a time frame, DPH reports 895 recorded infections among 89,500 students and staff in SF schools (623 of 74,500 in public schools; 272 of 15,000 in private parochial and charter schools). There have been 53 cumulative total suspected in-school transmission “events” and 12 total school outbreaks. All cases were either mild to moderate illness and none of these required hospitalization. An outbreak is defined as three or more cases in non-related households in which the source of infection occurred at the school, and not another setting

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Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been." He has maintained our Covid tracker through most of the pandemic, taking some breaks with his search for the Mission's best fried-chicken sandwich and now its best noodles. When the Warriors make the playoffs, he writes up his take on the games.

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1 Comment

  1. Thank You! Mission Local was the only place where I could find some detailed info on rhe Covid numbers in SF

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