Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.

Hospitalizations are at historic highs as infections and positivity rates may be ebbing around the City, though most R Number models continue to show a spreading virus.

Ebbing omicron numbers inspired San Francisco’ Department of Public Health to revise its goals for covid. Some find this less than comforting.

Testing sites in the Mission (22 percent) and Excelsior (53 percent) report this morning positivity rates far in excess of the average Citywide rates.

Will widespread omicron infections make this surge the last? Maybe. But new variants are waiting off stage, and how much immunity Person A (triple vaxxed, recently infected) might have than Person B (twice infected, once vaxxed) or Person C (once infected, never vaxxed) remains uncertain.

Rochelle Walensky, the director for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, is calling for an overhaul of the nation’s healthcare system, and says we can’t rely on the CDC alone to fix the problem.

Omicron has demonstrated why such action is urgent. Like, now.

Brazil, of all places, demonstrates that having a functional and trusted public heath system helps to prevent moronic politicians from getting in the way.

Among the deluge of preprints etc., there are a number of revised reports on the power of The Vaccine to protect against infection, transmission and hospitalization over time.

We’ve also learned that The Vaccine doesn’t work the same for everyone.

Would a more nuanced discussion of The Vaccine last year have lessened our confusion and anxiety this year?

Changes in understanding also provide an occasion for changes in language.

Although omicron numbers have begun to ebb, the surge in preprints, articles and tweets is still going strong. This must-see video will give you an idea of what covid tracking has become over the past six weeks.

Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from the San Francisco Department of Public Health. As of Jan. 23, DPH reports 776,981 residents, more than 89 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and over 82 percent have received two. For residents 5 and older, DPH reports the figures rise above 90 percent and above 86 percent while for those 65 and older over 90 percent have received two doses. SFDPH reports that as of Jan. 23, approximately 446,777 SF residents (62 percent of all residents) have received a COVID-19 booster dose.

For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

On Jan. 20, DPH reports there were a record 265 covid hospitalizations, or about 30.3 hospitalizations per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). ICU covid patients, well below last year’s peak, have remained in the mid 30’s to the mid-40s since Jan. 9. Today, the California Department of Public Health reports 278 covid patients in SF hospitals with 39 in ICU. DPH expects hospitalizations “to peak in the next few days at a level that remains within the health care system’s bed capacity.”

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 35 covid patients and 5 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 19 covid patients and 5 ICU beds available. Of 200 reported covid patients, 88 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 65 ICU beds available among reporting hospitals (which does not include the Veterans Administration). The California DPH currently reports 74 ICU beds available in San Francisco.

Note: DPH uses dated population figures for neighborhoods. Between Nov. 20 and Jan. 19, DPH recorded 3221 infections among Mission residents or 548 infections per 10,000 residents. During the Delta surge there was a more even distribution of infections around the City, but with omicron, the old pattern has returned, once again hitting hardest in neighborhoods with high concentrations of low income populations and racial/ethnic minorities. Despite over 90 percent of its residents having received at least 2 doses of The Vaccine, Bayview Hunters Point once again has the highest number of recorded infections (3520) and the highest rate, 928 infections per 10,000 residents. Of sixteen neighborhoods with rates in excess of 500 per 10,000 residents, 15 are in the east and southeast.

On Jan. 16, the 7-day average of daily new infections recorded in the City was 1473 or approximately 168.4 new infections per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). This represents a 34 percent drop since Jan. 9. According to DPH, the 7-day average infection rate among vaccinated residents on Jan. 13 was 144.6 per 100,000 vaccinated residents and for unvaccinated residents, 366.8 per 100,000 unvaccinated residents.

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As of Jan. 16, DPH reports 7,240 infections among Asian San Franciscans, or approximately 27.8 percent of all January recorded infections, Latinxs 6,622 infections or 25.4 percent, Whites 6,123infections or 23.5 percent, Blacks 1,862 infections or 7.1 percent, Multi-racials 425 infections, or 1.6 percent, Pacific Islanders 285infections or 1.1 percent and Native Americans recorded 74 infections or .3 percent of all January infections so far.

As of Jan. 16, DPH reports Latinx residents have a 28.5 percent positivity rate so far in January, Pacific Islanders 23.8 percent, Blacks 23.2 percent, Multi-racials 20.7 percent, Native Americans 19.1 percent, Asians 15.7 percent and Whites have a January positivity rate so far of 13.7 percent

Two new covid-related deaths have been reported in January.

Covid R Estimation lowered its San Francisco R Number estimate to 1.39 and its California R Number to 1.15. The ensemble kept both its average San Francisco and California estimates below 1 (.74 and .71 respectively). Both are heavily influenced by one model, although one other model shows SF, and two others show California, below one.

According to DPH, as of Jan. 19,, the pandemic infection fatality rate for Asian SF residents has been 1.17 percent, Blacks .9 percent, Pacific Islanders .75 percent, Whites .7 percent, Latinxs .5 percent, and Native Americans 0. Note: Given there are probably a greater number of infections than reported (especially now with omicron and home rapid tests) the infection fatality rates are most likely lower.

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Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been." He has maintained our Covid tracker through most of the pandemic, taking some breaks with his search for the Mission's best fried-chicken sandwich and now its best noodles. When the Warriors make the playoffs, he writes up his take on the games.

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1 Comment

  1. How can cases be declining yet the R0 number be estimated to be above 1? That seems nonsensical.

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