Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.

The impressive dip in numbers last week seems to be taking a breather. Infection numbers and positivity rates have stalled their downward slide, and hospitalizations have stalled their upward climb. Most R Number models show transmission rates trending downwards and some show remarkable lows.

The plateau hasn’t stopped the City from patting itself on the back. It would have been helpful had Supervisor Mandelman emphasized, and examined, the City’s isolation support.

As omicron seems to be in ebb mode, the chatter about the virus becoming “endemic” has been wildly, and perhaps prematurely, flowing. Note: endemic does not mean harmless.

Last week, it looked like we might be headed toward a fourth shot. But then there were indications that a fourth shot, like the previous three, did little to prevent omicron infection. No matter. The Israel Health Ministry, aka Pfizer Lab, has taken another look at their data, and has found that besides providing added protection to infection, it also offers “threefold” protection against serious illness. Expect a fourth shot to be promoted soon, and a fifth shot to follow this summer.

Here’s a new report, again from Israel, showing less long covid among vaccinated individuals (but are they “up to date”?). The report says “vaccinated people were no more likely to report symptoms [of long covid] than people who’d never caught SARS-CoV-2.”

Have you heard about the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference? It had originally been scheduled to take place live at the St. Francis Hotel in Union Square, but omicron got in the way. It seems as if there was a lot more talk about technology and money than about healthcare. Here are notes from Day One and Day Two if you’re interested. I will report more on the conference depending on how much more of this I can take (family members say it’s not good for my health).

A lot of VC dollars are flooding into technologized healthcare.

Yale has developed a wearable clip that can detect covid in the air. It is said to be capable of detecting below-infectious levels. Be prepared for a lot of alerts.

And, from the University of California, San Francisco, expect more telemedicine and virtual care with its investments in artificial intelligence.

One thing I haven’t seen mentioned by J.P. Morgan, UCSF or any other hospital, hospital chain, clinic or startup, is investment in workers. How retro! Yet it seems longstanding workforce problems are crippling Britain’s National Health Service.

Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from the San Francisco Department of Public Health. As of Jan. 25, DPH reports 777,582 residents, more than 89 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and over 82 percent have received two. For residents 5 and older, DPH reports the figures rise above 90 percent and above 86 percent while for those 65 and older over 90 percent have received two doses. SFDPH reports that as of Jan. 25, approximately 450,081 SF residents (63 percent of all residents) have received a COVID-19 booster dose.

For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

On Jan. 20, DPH reports there were 269 covid hospitalizations, or about 30.7 hospitalizations per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). ICU covid patients, well below last year’s peak, have remained in the mid 30’s to the mid-40s since Jan. 9. Today, the California Department of Public Health reports 271 covid patients in SF hospitals with 36 in ICU.

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 48 covid patients and 6 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 22 covid patients and 4 ICU beds available. Of 264 reported covid patients, 125 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 67 ICU beds available among reporting hospitals (which does not include the Veterans Administration). The California DPH currently reports 72 ICU beds available in San Francisco.

Note: DPH uses dated population figures for neighborhoods. Between Nov. 22 and Jan. 21, DPH recorded 3481 infections among Mission residents or 592 infections per 10,000 residents. During the Delta surge there was a more even distribution of infections around the City, but with omicron, the old pattern has returned, once again hitting hardest in neighborhoods with high concentrations of low income populations and racial/ethnic minorities. Despite over 90 percent of its residents having received at least 2 doses of The Vaccine, Bayview Hunters Point has the highest number of recorded infections (3860) and an incredible rate, 1018 infections per 10,000 residents. It is the only neighborhood with a rate in excess of 750 per 10,000 residents. Of seventeen neighborhoods with rates in excess of 500 per 10,000 residents, 15 are in the east and southeast.

On Jan. 18, the 7-day average of daily new infections recorded in the City was 1486 or approximately 169.9 new infections per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). According to DPH, the 7-day average infection rate among vaccinated residents on Jan. 18 was 146.9 per 100,000 vaccinated residents and for unvaccinated residents, 371.0 per 100,000 unvaccinated residents.

As of Jan. 16, DPH reports 7,240 infections among Asian San Franciscans, or approximately 27.8 percent of all January recorded infections, Latinxs 6,622 infections or 25.4 percent, Whites 6,123infections or 23.5 percent, Blacks 1,862 infections or 7.1 percent, Multi-racials 425 infections, or 1.6 percent, Pacific Islanders 285infections or 1.1 percent and Native Americans recorded 74 infections or .3 percent of all January infections so far.

The average City positivity rate has fluctuated between 17.5 percent and 18.4 percent since Jan. 11.

Covid R Estimation has considerably lowered its San Francisco R Number estimate to 1.01 while raising its California R Number to 1.22. Despite all reports and evidence to the contrary, the ensemble posts its average San Francisco and California estimates at an astonishing .65 and California even lower at .6. Both are heavily influenced by one model, although two other models show SF, and California, well below one.

According to DPH, as of Jan. 21, the infection fatality rate over the course of the pandemic for San Francisco residents under the age of 30 is .007, between 30-39 .04 percent, 40-49 .18 percent, 50-59 .45 percent, 60-69 1.5 percent, 70-79 3.9 percent, and for those 80 and above, 16 percent. Note: Given there are probably a much greater number of infections than reported (especially now with omicron and home rapid tests) the infection fatality rates are most likely lower.

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Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been." He has maintained our Covid tracker through most of the pandemic, taking some breaks with his search for the Mission's best fried-chicken sandwich and now its best noodles. When the Warriors make the playoffs, he writes up his take on the games.

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3 Comments

  1. Thanks for posting this, especially the info on where money is going, I am covid convinced incentivized to move to a software field in healthcare

    That said, the data in the daily SF cases chart is either from January 18 or 21 depending on which link in the chart you visit

    I don’t understand the lag in these sources given that the nytimes seems to have data that is maybe only 6-12 hours behind (they often have the current day’s new case numbers around 11pm)

    The nytimes number for yesterday are the lowest new counts since December 29

  2. Is there age reporting in source data?
    I saw a striking graph showing break out by age with adults having well peaked by kids still on their way up, presumably from in-school transmission, the radio active potato of 2022. It would be lovely to see an overlay of age bins!

  3. tonight, the night of the 26th, nytimes is showing a new case rate for sf of 94.8 per 100k, the lowest new case rate since December 28th when it was 93.6

    if a pattern seen in prior weeks reporting from the times holds true, tomorrow we will see a spike in cases — I think this is an interesting data pattern but a measurement anomaly

    the times claims

    > In data for California, The Times primarily relies on reports from the state, as well as health districts or county governments that often report ahead of the state. California typically releases new data on weekdays. Counts on Mondays or Tuesdays may include totals from the weekend. The state reports cases and deaths based on a person’s permanent or usual residence.

    and so I am still not clear how they have daily data when dph lags by so many days

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