Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.
Hospitalizations, case counts and positivity rates stayed static over the past couple days. R Number models for San Francisco continue to suggest increasing spread.
There is still more static than data on omicron.
Tomas Pueyo, an early Bay Area favorite with his “Hammer and Dance” routine, has returned with more charts and thoughts about omicron. It is a long read, educational, but of course inconclusive. What he writes echoes what others have been saying, here and here and here with respect to omicron’s questions and answers.
Unable to convince many to take its vaccine, Pfizer now touts it’s new treatment pill, soon to be on the market, as almost fool-proof.
J.P. Morgan’s annual big bash health care (business) conference held annually in SF, will be virutal. Earlier the bank insisted on in-person attendance for participants. But the prospect of 10,000 people crammed into the St, Francis was a bit too uncomfortable for biotech and healthcare CEOs.
By now you are probably aware of the 800,000 covid-related deaths in the U.S. with more to come. What you may not know is the covid-related death toll during the Trump and Biden maladministrations has been identical. Wait. Didn’t we put “adults” back in the room? Here’s a contoversial piece, pointing to the failure of our current version of “democracy” to deal with the pandemic. Note: the piece strangely substitutes “the living and the dying” for what it makes clear are the class divisions revealed by crisis. Note also the piece says “no system of government has prevailed” but leaves out China. No matter what you think of China’s politics, propaganda or stringent containment measures, in comparison to the 800,000 deaths in the U.S., China has reported only 4,636 covid-related deaths, 0 reported in 2021.
I have been hearing reports about more and more boosters being delivered in SF resulting in delays for appointments. Apparently Moderna boosters are tough to find these days. Both the FDA and CDC have authorized “mixing and matching” and I have yet to see any disagreement. If you have something to offer in this respect, please let me know.
Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from the San Francisco Department of Public Health. As of Dec. 14, DPH reports more than 86 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and 80 percent have received two. For residents 5 and older, DPH reports the figures rise above 90 percent and above 83 percent. SFDPH reports that as of Dec. 7, approximately 264,189 residents have received a COVID-19 booster dose including 64 percent of residents 65 and over. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.
On Dec. 9, DPH reports there were 32 covid hospitalizations, or about 3.6 per 100,000 (based on an 874,000 population), more or less where it’s been for most of this month. DPH continues its silence on hospitalizations among those used to be considered “fully vaxxed” for over two months. In a recent email, DPH Communications Director Alison Hawkes writes “Our hospitalizations page is more of a deep time into the cases, specifically verifying them clinically to be caused by covid, and other analysis that is done.” I’m not sure exactly what that means. For September data see the latest from DPH.
The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 5 covid patients and 6 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 5 covid patients and 5 ICU beds available. Of 44 reported covid patients, 29 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 70 ICU beds available among reporting hospitals (which does not include the Veterans Administration). The California DPH currently reports 87 ICU beds available in San Francisco. SFDPH won’t say.
Note: DPH uses dated population figures for neighborhoods. Between Oct. 11 and Dec. 10, DPH recorded 248 cases in the Mission or a rate of approximately 42 per 10,000 residents. During that period, the only other neighborhood with more than 200 cases was Sunset/Parkside (263), but it’s rate was 32 per 10,000. The Marina leads with a rate of 74 per 10,000 residents, the only neighborhood in excess of 60, and, as a reader points out, Santa Con is coming to town.
On Dec. 7, the 7-day average of daily new cases in the City remained at 79 or approximately 9 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). The 7-day average case rate among vaccinated (not boosted) residents was 7.7 per 100,000 vaccinated residents and for unvaccinated residents, 18.3 per 100,000 unvaccinated residents.
We won’t have December figures until the 20th at the earliest, and DPH refuses to tell us who, and how many have been hospitalized. Instead of providing socio-economic data, DPH only reports on race, ethnicity, age, gender and sexual preference. As of Dec. 10, pandemic case rates for population groups based on their population numbers were Pacific Islanders 2,324 per 10,000 residents, Latinxs 1,408, Native American 1,108, Blacks 964, Whites 427, and Asians 338.
The Citywide average 7-day rolling average positivity rate has been below 2 percent since September 21.
Another December covid-related death has been reported, which should raise the total to 680. However, according to DPH today, the cumulative total comes to 407, a major, and unexplained, revision. Of those San Franciscans who died of covid-related deaths, approximately 3.7 percent had no underlying conditions.
All but one model are currently showing the San Francisco R Number over 1. Covid R Estimation has kept its San Francisco R Number at a relatively high 1.31 (among the highest in the state) and raised its California R Number estimate back to 1.16. The ensemble has slightly lowered its average for the San Francisco R Number to 1.05, approximately the same as the average California R Number. For more on modeling, check out this article on the model produced by a Bernal Heights resident. The model, included in the ensemble and said to be a favorite with DPH, currently estimates the San Francisco R Number at 1.12.
As of Dec. 3, DPH reports that of 89,500 total staff an students in SF schools, there have been a total of 817 cases, 577 in public schools. The cumlative total of suspected in-school transmission “events” is 48 and the cumulative total of school outbreaks is 12. The time frame remains opaque as to whether this includes numbers prior to August 2021.