Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.

Happy Monday morning. Over the weekend, hospitalizations and daily case numbers fell as both positivity rates and R Number models indicate decreasing rates of local transmission.

Earlier this month, it looked like we were about to get inundated with the virus again. The average daily number of reported infections jumped 56 percent in six days. Since then almost all that gain has been lost. An artifact of widespread vaccination? Nice weather? The Booster?

If you want to get an idea of what difference the Booster will make, here’s one take on what we might expect.

Probably the main reason given for The Booster is to protect the elderly and immunocompromised (especially both). A new article in the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall) which shows increased hospitalizations among those groups, provides useful data supporting the need for further protection. A long excerpt from the article can be viewed here.

As you’ve no doubt read here or elsewhere, two new drugs to treat covid should be coming online before the end of the year. Gamechangers? Maybe. But to be effective depends on timing. Which means what? Not only getting tested but getting test results back on time.

And that brings us back to at-home rapid tests. Where are they? Why they are still so expensive and difficult to find?

One game the new drugs most certainly will not change is Big Pharma prices for the drugs. Drugs that cost $20 per regimen to produce, will be sold for $700 (Merck) and $500 (Pfizer).

Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from the San Francisco Department of Public Health. As of Nov. 21, DPH reports more than 84 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and 77 percent have received two. For residents 5 and older, DPH reports the figures rise to 87 percent and 80 percent. SFDPH reports that as of Nov 15, 138,485 residents have received the booster including 43 percent of residents 65 and over. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

On Nov. 18, DPH reports there were 28 covid hospitalizations, or about 3.2 per 100,000 (based on an 874,000 population). There are no new updates on hospitalizations among what used to be considered “fully vaxxed” residents or those who received boosters. For September data see the latest from DPH. The CDC has not reported recent admissions and proportions of covid patients in San Francisco hospitals.

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 6 covid patients and 6 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 3 covid patients and 3 ICU beds available. Of 37 reported covid patients, 24 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 69 ICU beds available among reporting hospitals (which does not include the Veterans Administration). The California DPH currently reports  88 ICU beds available in San Francisco. SFDPH won’t say.

Note: DPH uses dated population figures for neighborhoods. Between Sept. 18 and Nov. 17, DPH recorded 275 cases in the Mission or a rate of 47 per 10,000 residents. During that period, although Bayview Hunters Point had the most cases (225), the Marina had the highest rate, 69 per 10,000 residents.  Of 38 neighborhoods, 4 have rates of less than 20 per 10,000: Japantown, Treasure Island, Presidio and Seacliff.

On Nov. 14, the 7-day average of daily new cases in the City was 56, or approximately 6.4 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population).  The 7-day average case rate among vaccinated (not boosted) residents was 5.6 per 100,000 vaccinated residents  and for unvaccinated residents,  11.3 per 100,000 unvaccinated residents.

As of Nov.17, DPH reported Whites have recorded 494 infections this month, 45 percent of the total; Asians 225 infections, 20.5 percent, Latinxs 165 infections, 15 percent, Blacks 44 infectons, 4 percent, Multi-racials 24 infections, 2.2 percent, Pacific Islanders 10 infections, .9 percent and Native Americans recorded 6 infections so far this month, .5 percent of the total.

Having been on the rise, the Citywide 7-day average posititivity rate dropped to 1.7 percent. As of Nov.17, Whites have a 2.1 percent November positivity rate, Native Americans 2.0 percent, Multi-racials 1.7 percent, Latinxs 1.5 percent, Asians 1.3 percent and Blacks have a 1.2 percent November positivity rate.

DPH has reported San Francisco’s another October and another November covid-related death, bringing the Delta total (August through November) to 93  and the cumulative covid-related death toll to 670. Last spring’s surge resulted in approximately 90 covid-related deaths recorded between August and October.  As of Sept. 30, DPH reports 16 covid-related deaths among “fully vaccinated” residents. Of those San Franciscans who died covid-related deaths, 3 percent had no underlying conditons.

Covid R Estimation dropped its San Francisco R Number to .99.  For the California R Number, the estimate dropped to .82. The ensemble lowered its average for the  San Francisco R Number to a somewhat incredible .68.  All but one model in the ensemble currently show the City below 1. The average California R Number was lowered to .89 with all but one model showing the state below 1. 

As of Nov. 17, DPH reports that among San Francisco residents aged between 0-4, there were 25 new cases so far this month, 2.3 percent of the total; 5-11 63 new cases, 5.7 percent, 12-17 22 new cases, 2 percent, 18-20 22 new cases, 2 percent, 21-24, 103 new cases 9.6 percent, 25-29 244 new cases, 22.2 percent, 30-39 313 new cases, 28.5 percent, 40-49 130 new cases, 11.9 percent, 50-59 80 new cases, 7.3 percent, 60-69 59 new cases, 5.4 percent, 70-79 23 new cases, 2.1 percent, and those 80+ had 13 new cases so far in November, 1.2 percent.

Follow Us

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

Join the Conversation

1 Comment

  1. Armchair epidemiologist here – I have a theory about the blip in cases – its HALLOWEEN, which is practically a national holiday here in SF with both little ones as well as 20/30/40-somethings. I read that Delta hits quicker which jives with the case peak on 11/5. Now it will all settle down and then spike back up after Thanksgiving indoor celebrations. Only reason hospitalizations aren’t/didn’t going up is that our vax rate is very good and the age group of the halloween revelers.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *