Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.

Though daily average case numbers have fallen by almost three-quarters, hospitalizations remain plateaued at a relatively high level.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, states with higher vaccination rates have lower infection, hospitalization and death numbers.

Here’s another study showing that vaccinated individuals do not transmit the virus as readily or as much as unvaccinated individuals.

And although no one knows exactly what “long covid” is (beyond prolonged symptoms), a study out of the UK shows vaccination, even among those infected, lowers the risk of long covid.

When carried out with intelligence, patience and empathy, employer vaccine mandates can work.

Ex-CDC director Tom Frieden has an interesting thread on the failure of Pfizer and Friends to transfer their vaccine technology, and (other than megaprofits), the potential consequences of inaction.

In Portugal, essentially all eligible adults have been vaccinated, and although waning antibodies concern some officials, the Portuguese admiral who directed the vaccine campaign calls boosters “stupid.” “You cannot win just by vaccinating everyone in your own country,” he said. “The war ends after we give shots to everyone in the world.”

Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from the San Francisco Department of Public Health. As of Oct. 2, DPH reports more than 80 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and 75 percent are completely vaccinated. New vaccinations, though low, keep on truckin’. On Oct. 2, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 236. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Are hospitalizations “decoupled” from cases? Since peaking in mid-August, Delta hospitalizations have fallen about 48 percent but have been fluctuating in the 60s for the past two weeks. On Sept. 30, DPH reports there were 64 covid hospitalizations, or about 7.3 per 100,000 (based on an 874,000 population). The ICU population remains, as it has been since Sept. 16 between 20 and 26. DPH has not provided information on vaccinated hospitalizations recently. The latest update says 77 fully vaccinated San Franciscans have been hospitalized (a rate of 12.6 per 1,000 cases, compared to 85.1 per 1,000 cases for those not fully vaccinated). According to the CDC, there were 48 new admissions for the week ending Oct. 1  (up 4.35 percent from the previous week). For the week ending Oct. 1, covid patients accounted for 3.48 percent of hospital beds (no change from the previous week) and 8.63 percent of ICU beds (no change from the previous week). As of Sept. 27, the CDC says that, of more than 183 million vaccinated U.S. residents, 22,115 patients with a covid vaccine breakthrough infection were hospitalized or died (though 17 percent of deaths  and 18 percent of hospitalizations did not have symptoms of covid, or their hospitalization or death was not covid-related). 

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 10 covid patients and 11 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 5 covid patients and 3 ICU beds available. Of 71 reported covid patients, 40 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 66 ICU beds available among reporting hospitals.

Between July 31 and Sept. 29, DPH recorded 601 new cases in the Mission for a rate of 102 new cases per 10,000 residents. Over that period, DPH recorded 734 new cases in Bayview Hunters Point or 194 new cases per 10,000 residents.  Of 38 neighborhoods, 16 had new case rates over 100 per 10,000 residents. The Castro, which was hit hard at the beginning of the Delta surge improved to 132 cases per 10,000 residents

Since peaking in early August, the 7 day rolling average number of cases in SF has dropped approximately 75 percent. DPH reports for the week ending Sept. 26, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the city dropped to 76, or approximately 8.7 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population).  According to the latest from DPH on Sept. 26 the 7-day average case rate among vaccinated residents was 7.3 per 100,000 fully vaccinated residents  and for unvaccinated residents  14.4 per unvaccinated 100,000 residents.  

As of Oct. 1, DPH estimates approximately 90 percent of San Francisco’s Pacific Islander and Native American populations,  82 percent of Latinxs, 81 percent of Asians, 70 percent of Blacks and 68 percent of Whites have received at least one dose of The Vaccine, DPH does not calculate Multi-racials or others.

From a peak of 6.2 percent, the 7 day rolling Citywide positivity rate has dropped approximately 75 percent, to its lowest level since July 5.

Covid-related deaths in San Francisco are always difficult to figure. DPH added 6 more deaths in September, for a monthly total of 25 so far, bringing the cumulative covid-related death toll to 636. According to DPH, over half of deaths were among persons over the age of 80 and nearly all are over the age of 60, and less than 3 percent had no known underlying condition. DPH continues to count only 11 deaths of fully vaccinated San Franciscans “that are due to complications from COVID-19.”

Covid R Estimation raised its most recent San Francisco R Number to .92 while lowering its estimate for the California R number to .75. In contrast, the ensemble  lowered its average  San Francisco  R Number back to .75 while raising its California average to .8. All models in the ensemble continue to show the local and state rates of transmission below 1.

As of Sept. 28, DPH reports 1,230 cases for the month (47 percent) among women and 1,370 cases (52 percent) among men. Only 1 trans male case was reported and 0 cases among trans females.  

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Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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2 Comments

  1. I’m curious about what’s happening at Laguna Honda — Have the seniors and staff there received boosters? How are they doing in terms of covid cases?

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