Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.

The City’s positivity rate has sunk below 2 percent while infection (AKA case) numbers have dipped below 100, R number models differ, and hospitalizations remain fairly static.

Pandemic politics will likely persist long after the virus has faded. While one side minimizes the dangers and prefers horse paste to The Vaccine, others wildly exaggerate the risks. What this means when the next pandemic rolls through is not hard to imagine.

Even the NBA has gotten into the game with players like the Dubs’ Andrew Wiggins refusing to take The Vaccine. In response, legend Kareem Abdul-Jabbar says “There is no room for players who are willing to risk the health and lives of their teammates, the staff and the fans simply because they are unable to grasp the seriousness of the situation or do the necessary research.”

A recent study from Harvard sides with Abdul-Jabbar, showing that when vaccinated individuals come down with Covid-19, their viral loads decrease faster, they are contagious for a shorter period of time, and harbor less virus overall.

Will the virus disappear, or will it stay with us, much like measles and the flu? Of course, Pfizer and Friends would love endless profits, but corporate shills aren’t the only ones who view control, rather than eradication or elimination, as the most likely outcome.

Here’s a U.S. Centers for Disease Control report suggesting a second shot might be useful for J&J vaccine recipients, and here’s the CDC report on the side effects (and safety) of the Pfizer booster so far.

Why were there no large scale (or even relatvely small scale) trials conducted before boosters were put into effect? Welcome to 21st century scientific research in the U.S.

Attention, London Breed! Dr. Grant Colfax (remember him?) says indoor masking will be in effect for vaccinated and unvaccinated alike for the “foreseeable future.”

Finally, despite Brandon Belt’s injury, some good news for Giants fans. Concession workers have tentatively agreed not to go on strike during the playoffs. Their negotiations included covid hazard pay for games in 2020 and 2021.

Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from the San Francisco Department of Public Health. Here, the vaccination picture continues to be relatively static. As of Sept. 28, DPH still reports more than 88 percent of San Francisco residents over 12 have received one dose, and 82 percent are completely vaccinated. On Sept. 28, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day fell to 229. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

On Sept. 25, DPH reports there were 66 covid hospitalizations, or about 7.5 per 100,000 (based on an 874,000 population). The latest update from DPH says 77 fully vaccinated San Franciscans have been hospitalized (a rate of 12.6 per 1,000 cases, compared to 85.1 per 1,000 cases for those not fully vaccinated). According to the CDC, there were 42 new admissions for the week ending Sept. 26  (-10.64 percent from the previous week). For the week ending Sept. 26, covid patients accounted for 3.5 percent of hospital beds (no change from the previous week) and 8.74percent of ICU beds (up 1 percent from the previous week). As of Sept. 20, the CDC says that, of more than 180 million vaccinated U.S. residents, 19,136 patients with a covid vaccine breakthrough infection were hospitalized or died (though 19 percent of deaths  and 20 percent of hospitalizations did not have symptoms of covid, or their hospitalization or death was not covid-related). 

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 10 covid patients and 10 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 4 covid patients and 3 ICU beds available. Of 65 reported covid patients, 42 were at either SFGH or UCSF, with at least 66 ICU beds available throughout the City. 

As of Sept. 27, an estimated 82 percent of Mission residents had been vaccinated. With an estimated 96 percent of the population vaccinated, FiDi/South Beach leads the pack, while Lakeshore continues to trail with 45 percent. In Bayview Hunters Point, an estimated 91 percent of the population has been vaccinated with most of the DPH effort focused on the neighborhood.

DPH reports for the week ending Sept. 21, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the city was 91, or approximately 10.4 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population).  According to the latest from DPH on Sept. 17, the 7-day average case rate among fully vaccinated residents was 7.2 per 100,000 fully vaccinated residents  and  17.4 per not fully vaccinated 100,000 residents.  

Did shelter-in-place contribute to infection inequities? Without restrictions during Delta, infection numbers line up much closer to population percentages. So far in September, Whites have had 36.5 percent of recorded infections, Asian residents had 22.5 percent, Latinxs 19 percent, Blacks 8 percent, Multi-racials 2 percent, Pacific Islanders 1.4 percent and Native Americans .4 percent of the month’s recorded infections. 

Although other indicators like infections and hospitalizations give mixed signals, positivity rates have been steadily falling. The City’s average weekly positivity rate has fallen below 2 percent for the first time since early July.

Covid-related deaths in San Francisco are always difficult to figure. DPH added 6 more deaths in September, for a monthly total of 20 so far, bringing the cumulative covid-related death toll to 630. According to DPH, over half of deaths were among persons over the age of 80 and nearly all are over the age of 60. DPH says there are now 11 deaths of fully vaccinated San Franciscans “that are due to complications from COVID-19.”

Covid R Estimation has raised its estimate of the San Francisco R Number to .88 and raised its estimate for the California R number substantially to .91. The ensemble  tells a much different story, with average estimates of the San Francisco and California R Numbers at a relatively very low  .72. All models in the ensemble continue to show the local and state rates of transmission below 1.

The overall population percentages have changed, due to the 2020 Census. For the time being, we will continue to use use the figures provided by SFDPH. So far in September,  SF residents between 0-4 account for 3.4 percent of the month’s recorded infections, those 5-10 6.1 perecent, those 11-13 1.9 percent, those 14-17 1.6 percent, those 18-20 2.3 percent, those  21-24 8.4 percent, those 25-29 14.5 percent, those 30-39 22.6 percent, those 40-49 13.9 percent, those 50-59 10.6 percent, those 60-69 8.2 percent, those 70-79 4.2 percent, and  those 80 and above accounted for 2.2 percent of September cases.  

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Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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3 Comments

    1. Indeed – it’s important that the city track this along with the number of deaths of fully vaccinated residents. Not to show how the vaccines aren’t 100% perfect (because they aren’t and never were promoted by the CDC as such) but to show how well they reduce the chance of hospitalization and death. 11 COVID deaths among the fully vaccinated population out of 630 total COVID deaths (636 per today’s website stats) is less than 2%. That’s a win in my book.

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