Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.
Little movement in the numbers over the weekend as the virus digs in.
A number of public health doctors, officials and commenters now assume the virus will become endemic, so we have to learn to live with it.
What does an endemic covid mean, in practice? Dr. Vinay Prasad from UCSF has some ideas regarding risk management, but the chances of contracting no or mild symptoms instead of serious illness are far improved for the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.
As Delta drags on, more studies and observations are coming around. Rather than scare headlines, we are seeing the durability and effectiveness of The Vaccine not only in preventing hospitalization, but in slowing transmission and keeping infection rates down. as demonstrated by data coming from Canada and California.
After a sharply rising and falling, then rising again after the UK reopened, infections are slowly declining, while hospitalizations have stayed low.
In order to vaccinate the rest of the world, much more of the vaccine will be needed. A number of companies have offered to produce generic products, but Pfizer and friends refuse to let a dime of their obscene profits slip from their icy grip.
The worrisome “long covid” hasn’t gone away, though no really knows what it is.
Having a hospital bed is one thing, but without healthcare workers, it won’t do much good. For years (decades), management consultants have advised hospitals to cut staff (to improve profits if not healthcare). The pandemic showed some of the problems with close-to-the-bone staffing, and provoked an exodus of healthcare workers we will need no matter what course the virus takes.
Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from the San Francisco Department of Public Health. Here, the vaccination picture continues to be relatively static. As of Sept. 26, DPH still reports more than 88 percent of San Francisco residents over 12 have received one dose, and 82 percent are completely vaccinated. On Sept. 26, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day rose to 250. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.
On Sept. 23, DPH reports there were 64 covid hospitalizations, or about 7.3 per 100,000 (based on an 874,000 population). The latest update from DPH says 77 fully vaccinated San Franciscans have been hospitalized (a rate of 12.6 per 1,000 cases, compared to 85.1 per 1,000 cases for those not fully vaccinated) . According to the CDC, there were 46 new admissions for the week ending Sept. 24 (-9.80 percent from the previous week). For the week ending Sept. 24, covid patients accounted for 3.51 percent of hospital beds (no change from the previous week) and 8.89 percent of ICU beds (up 1.57 percent from the previous week). As of Sept. 20, the CDC says that, of more than 180 million vaccinated U.S. residents, 19,136 patients with a covid vaccine breakthrough infection were hospitalized or died (though 19 percent of deaths and 20 percent of hospitalizations did not have symptoms of covid, or their hospitalization or death was not covid-related).
The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital with 10 covid patients and 10 ICU beds available, while across the Mission, CPMC had 4 covid patients and 3 ICU beds available. Of 65 reported covid patients, 42 were at either SFGH or UCSF.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, the Mission has had 5116 recorded infections, more than any other neighborhood in San Francisco. However, with a rate of 871 per 100,000 residents, it trails Bayview Hunters Point (1,323 per 100,000 residents), Tenderloin and Visitacion Valley.
DPH reports for the week ending Sept. 19, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the city was 100, or approximately 11.4 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 874,000 population). According to the latest from DPH on Sept. 17, the 7-day average case rate among fully vaccinated residents was 7.2 per 100,000 fully vaccinated residents and 17.4 per not fully vaccinated 100,000 residents.
Did shelter-in-place contribute to infection inequities? Without restrictions during Delta, infection numbers line up much closer to population percentages. So far in September, Whites have had 36.5 percent of recorded infections, Asian residents had 22.5 percent, Latinxs 19 percent, Blacks 8 percent, Multi-racials 2 percent, Pacific Islanders 1.4 percent and Native Americans .4 percent of the month’s recorded infections.
So far in September, the Mission’s positivity rate is 1.9 percent. Chinatown has the highest September rate at 6.8 percent. Bayview Hunters Point has 3 percent and Lakeshore with 45 percent of its residents vaccinated has 1.4 percent positivity.
Covid-related deaths in San Francisco are always difficult to figure. Over the weekend, DPH added 2 more deaths in September, for a monthly total of 14 so far, bringing the cumulative covid-related death toll to 623. DPH says there are now 11 deaths of fully vaccinated San Franciscans “that are due to complications from COVID-19.”
Covid R Estimation has raised its estimate of the San Francisco R Number to .88 and lowered its estimate for the California R number substantially to .7. All models in the ensemble estimate the San Francisco R Number below 1, with an average of .81, while the average California R Number is .72. The ensemble average estimate for San Francisco has been below 1 since Aug. 3 and for California below 1 since Aug. 30.
The overall population percentages have changed, due to the 2020 Census. For the time being, we will continue to use use the figures provided by SFDPH. So far in September, SF residents between 0-4 account for 3.4 percent of the month’s recorded infections, those 5-10 6.1 perecent, those 11-13 1.9 percent, those 14-17 1.6 percent, those 18-20 2.3 percent, those 21-24 8.4 percent, those 25-29 14.5 percent, those 30-39 22.6 percent, those 40-49 13.9 percent, those 50-59 10.6 percent, those 60-69 8.2 percent, those 70-79 4.2 percent, and those 80 and above accounted for 2.2 percent of September cases.