Good Morning Mission and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid 19 data dump.

Delta has scrambled our old calculations and assumptions of risk. Here’s a thread by an epidemiologist, filled with math, which explains what increased transmissibility means, and some of the consequences for the immediate and near future of our “dance” with the virus.

More vaccine mandates probably coming soon to SF, regulating entry into bars, restaurants, gyms and concerts. Mandates are provoking massive protests in France and we will probably see the same in the US. Though much more vaccination is critically needed, here and around the world, we could dispense with self-righteous moral outrage and anger directed at the unvaxxed. Of course the virus may find ways to evade the mandates.

And given the frequency of infections among the vaccinated, there is increasing talk of boosters. UCSF doc Bob Wachter, in his latest thread, supports boosters for groups of people at elevated risk, whereas UCSF doc Monica Gandhi has generally argued that they aren’t necessary because long-term immunity comes from our T cells and B cells, not from the antibodies provoked by the vaccine. She’s an infectious disease doc. For now, citing global need, the World Health Organization is calling for a temporary ban on boosters.

Last week I noted that Dr. Fauci called for increased research into vaccines for the “next pandemic”. What he left out was that this kind of research with dangerous pathogens has been going on for over 2 decades, in 59 labs around the world, including the Wuhan Institute of Virology, most without meaningful safety practices or regulation. For more on the origins of Covid, see https://www.independentsciencenews.org/commentaries/phylogeographic-mapping-of-newly-discovered-coronaviruses-pinpoints-direct-progenitor-of-sars-cov-2-as-originating-from-mojiang/

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. As of August 3, the vaccination report from DPH remains somewhat static with over 76 percent of all San Francisco residents having received one dose, and over 70 percent  now completely vaccinated.  On August 3, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day to new recipients was 544. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Since SFDPH has stopped providing useful data on hospitalizations (they never supplied very much) I went to the CDC. According to the CDC, over the past 7 days there has been 72 new admissions to SF hospitals, a 28.57 percent increase. Covid patients account for 4.39 percent of hospital beds (up 1.84 percent) and 8.37 percent of ICU beds (up 1.86 percent).

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows SFGH with 15 Covid patients and 81 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had Covid patients and 74 percent ICU occupancy. Of 71 reported Covid patients, 43 were at either SFGH or UCSF.

Between May 31 and July 30, DPH reported 369 new cases among Mission residents or 63 new cases per 10,000 residents) and 436 newcases in Bayview Hunters Point (115 cases per 10,000 residents). Only one other neighborhood, SOMA, had more than 200 new cases. One surprise is the Castro now appears to be one of the heaviest impacted neighborhoods with 185 new cases for a rate of 82 new cases per 10,000 residents.

For the week ending July 27, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City rose to 219 new cases, or approximately 33.7 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on 659,000 total residents).

As of July 28, White residents accounted for 32.5 percent of the month’s new cases, Latinx 21.8 percent, Asians 16.1 percent, Blacks 15 percent, Multi-racials 1.4 percent, Pacific Islanders 1 percent and Native Americans .4 percent.

The Citywide average positivity rate has risen to a level not seen since last April. In response to the Delta surge, according to SFDPH, testing has increased about 23 percent between July 20 and July 27. During the month of July testing has increased over 39 percent.

DPH has reported 2 new Covid-related deaths in July bringing July’s total to 7 and the cumulative total to 565. Although quite low in comparison to numbers posted for January and February, remember deaths are a lagging indicator and the recording and reporting of deaths lag even more.

Covid R Estimation puts the current R Number for San Francisco at 1.53, still among the highest in California, which it places at 1.35. The ensemble estimates the San Francisco R Number at 1.35 and the California R Number at 1.34. For a good explanation of the R Number, see the thread cited above.

As of July 30, there have been 78 new cases among the unhoused, up from 18 in June. DPH still lists only 6 Covid-related deaths among the unhoused.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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6 Comments

  1. “Last week I noted that Dr. Fauci called for increased research into vaccines for the “next pandemic”. What he left out was that this kind of research with dangerous pathogens has been going on for over 2 decades, in 59 labs around the world, including the Wuhan Institute of Virology”

    Please, quit it with the conspiracy theories. As the NYT article states, “this kind of research” into ‘prototype’ vaccines was first proposed in 2017, using technology that has existed for less than a decade. Not 20+ years, and not 59 labs.

  2. To even call a lab “BSL4” means that it already has extensive safety requirements, protocols, and equipment.

    The link you provided for the 59 labs says 59 labs INCLUDING planned labs AND labs under construction, so not 59 labs for the last couple decades, since some of those 59 labs are still just a proposal. Really interesting source choice considering that article on theconversation.org lists financial affiliates for both, though one financial affiliate is listed at the end of the first instead of for the second author. Also interesting is that the actual report or study isn’t included in the sources which gives the impression that very brief article is the entire thing. It feels like you think the corona virus somehow escaped from a lab in China, whether by infecting a technician that then caused a super spreader event or what.

    If you are going to mention it twice, then give it more than just a couple sentences and some questionable links to click on.

  3. “we could dispense with self-righteous moral outrage and anger directed at the unvaxxed”

    That’s a better attitude than when you were lumping people with reasonable vaccine concerns with the unhinged anti-vaxxers. nope, I’m not going to forget that.

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