Good Morning Mission and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid 19 data dump.

Case numbers in San Francisco have fallen over 40 average daily cases in three days as hospitalizations appear to be stabilizing (according to SFDPH data). Certainly good news, but as the UK has shown with Delta, what goes down, also goes up (though the recent rise in UK cases may have been a result of the reopening in mid-July). We also saw precipitate drops last fall, followed by precipitate increases, so hold on to your masks and keep to your rituals.

The docs on UCSF Grand Rounds give us a more sober view of the situation nationally and globally, as does this new piece by Ed Yong in The Atlantic which suggests that even though the pandemic will end (they all do eventually), Covid won’t be disappearing any time soon. Anyone heard lately from Scott Atlas and the Herd Immunity Gang in Palo Alto?

Here’s a good visualization in the New York Times on The Vaccine’s impact against Delta. Are we over-relying on The Vaccine? Probably. Here’s a look at what recent studies think of the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions tried so far. Note the wide differences.

The FDA has authorized booster shots for immunocompromised individuals.

And in case you missed it, San Francisco has become the first major U.S. city to mandate proof of vaccination to enter a variety of indoor venues, including bars, gyms and restaurants.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. As of August 12, DPH reports over 77 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and over 71 percent  are completely vaccinated. On August 12, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day to new recipients was 533. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Due to a DPH reporting glitch, we don’t have our usual hospitalization graph. The visualization above is a screen shot from the sf.gov website . On August 9, DPH reports there were 111 hospitalizations, 78 in Acute Care, 33 in ICU. According to the CDC, for the 7 days ending August 10, there were 81 new admissions to SF hospitals, 12.5 percent increase over the prior seven days. Covid patients account for 5.55 percent of hospital beds (up .73 percent) and 12.61 percent of ICU beds (up 3.25 percent).

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows SFGH with 16 Covid patients and 70 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had 15 Covid patients and 70 percent ICU occupancy. Of 99 reported Covid patients, 48 were at either SFGH or UCSF.

Between June 9 and August 8, DPH reported 508 new cases among Mission residents (or 86 new cases per 10,000 residents) and 566 new cases in Bayview Hunters Point (149 cases per 10,000 residents). Other than Bayview Hunters Point, 4 other neighborhoods had case rates in excess of 100 per 10,000 residents including the Castro, SOMA, Western Addition and Japantown. Lakeshore, still the City’s most unvaccinated neighborhood, had 62 new cases with a rate of 42 new cases per 10,000 residents.

For the week ending August 5, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 230 new cases, or approximately 26.1 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on 881,000 population).

Numbers for August will not be available from DPH until August 20. The graph showing daily raw numbers indicates the Delta surge is affecting White San Franciscan in greater numbers than other groups, and more than in prior surges.

In addition to cases, the Citywide 7-day average has also been falling for the past few days, now below the peak reached in January. .

The number of Covid-related deaths in July remains 9.

The current improving local situation is reflected in the R Number. Covid R Estimation has dropped San Francisco R Number estimate to a 1.07, not great, but respectable. It estimates the California R Number at 1.25, indicative of substantial prevalence and spread around the state. Most models in the ensemble estimate the San Francisco R Number below 1 with an average of at .87 and the California R Number at 1.13.

In July men had 55.6 percent of the cases (2563) and women had 42.9 percent (1976). Only 1 Trans Male case was recorded and 2 Trans Female cases.

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Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been." He has maintained our Covid tracker through most of the pandemic, taking some breaks with his search for the Mission's best fried-chicken sandwich and now its best noodles. When the Warriors make the playoffs, he writes up his take on the games.

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3 Comments

    1. NYC only require partial vaccination (1 shot), SF requires full (2 shot), so technically the first city to require proof of full vax

      1. SF also delays enforcement for a month longer than NYC (until October 13!). Apparently employees haven’t had long enough to get vaccinated yet.

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