Good Morning Mission and welcome to Virus Village, your Covid data dump.

All key indicators continue going up. The San Francisco R Number has remained around 1.3, the same as the state, and indicative of a rapidly spreading virus.

As the Delta variant rampages through the City here, we are beginning to recognize that although we know the virus goes in waves, we know very little about what causes it to go up and maybe even less about why it goes down. As David Leonhart in The New York Times points out, there is still no explanation for the sudden and steep drop in cases etc. nationwide last January (in winter, and in places with and without restrictions), nor is there any explanation for why Delta numbers suddenly dropped in India and are apparently dropping Britain.

The Vaccine will continue to play a big role in resisting the virus as the CDC reports only 6000 of 161 million vaccinated Americans have been hospitalized. And The Vaccine should provide long-term protection from infection and serious illness (if not 100 percent). But The Vaccine, even in a city like San Francisco, with 70 percent completely vaccinated, probably will not completely eradicate the virus. Neither will it completely stop transmission, which led to the CDC to not unreasonably change its masking guidance.

Perhaps this is one of the reasons why there seems to be more urgency in developing treatments for the disease, once contracted.

So let’s take a deep breath (depending on where you are and who you are with at the time) and resist the scary headlines (like the one I used a couple of days ago). The Vaccine seems to do what vaccines generally do: reduce risk. Some vaccinated will get infected and some will wind up in the hospital, but very few compared to the unvaccinated.

None of which should excuse the San Francisco Department of Public Health from not reporting meaningful hospitalization figures with cumulative numbers so we, the public who fund the Department and its data collection, can know what percentage of those infected have been hospitalized, what ethnicity, what gender, what age and what vaccination status. So far we have gotten anecdotes. On July 20, the Mayor tweeted that “Since December, almost 1,800 people in San Francisco who were not vaccinated have been hospitalized with COVID-19. Do you know how many San Franciscans were hospitalized from COVID despite being vaccinated? Six. A total of six.” That’s great to know but if we are “following the science” we need data not an occasional tweet. Mission Local is following up.

Scroll down for today’s numbers.

The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. As of July 29, DPH reports 76 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and 70 percent  are completely vaccinated.  On July 29, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day to new recipients was 523. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

It should come as no surprise that the case pattern established in the early days on the pandemic persist. Between May 26 and July 25, DPH reported 245 new cases among Mission residents and 336 cases in Bayview Hunters Point. Although cases are surging in most neighborhoods (other than Seacliff), the neighborhoods hit hardest are still in the southeast sector. Mission Local has heard from the Latino Task Force that although positive tests are rising, they are not seeing people getting very sick.

In terms of average daily case numbers (or positive tests), this surge has quickly surpassed last summer’s surge and is about half the highest number we saw in the winter. For the week ending July 22, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City rose to 174 new cases, or approximately 26.4 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on 659,000 total residents). .

As of July 29, DPH estimates that approximately 90 percent of San Francisco’s Pacific Islander population has received at least one dose of The Vaccine; Native Americans 84 percent, Asians 78 percent, Latinx 74 percent, Whites 66 percent and Blacks 61 percent.

The current numbers are as of July 26. For the week ending July 26, Covid hospitalizations increased 72 percent. A year ago, there were 104 Covid patients in SF hospitals.

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows SFGH with 8 Covid patients and 81 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had Covid patients and 41 percent ICU occupancy. Of 44 reported Covid patients, 21 were at either SFGH or UCSF.

For the 60 days ending July 25, Mission residents had a positivity rate of 2.4 percent. Bayview Hunters Point had 4.2 percent positivity, Visitacion Valley 3.6 percent, Oceanview 2.5 percent, Castro 2.4 percent, Potrero Hill 2.2 percent, Bernal Heights 2.1 percent, Glen Park 1.1 percent and Seacliff had .4 percent.

Approximately 92 percent of San Francico residents 65 and older have received at least one dose of The Vaccine and 85 percent are completely vaccinated.

Note. Although only 8 total Covid-related deaths have been recorded in June and July, DPH now tells us those figures are “less reliable, updates are likely.” When we will receive those updates, and what the true number of Covid-related deaths in San Francisco, is anyone’s guess.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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5 Comments

    1. The graph shows 22 in the ICU (closer to 19 than 70) and 56 in acute care. Their stacked total is is 78. Maybe the graph’s been updated after Thomas’s comment?

  1. Can you please include age as a demographic in your data for infection, hospitalization in acute care and icu, and deaths? Thank you.

    1. Yes, we would love to. So far, we don’t have those stats from SFDPH. On an earlier story, researchers said that the median age of those hospitalized is now 48.

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