Good Morning Mission and welcome to Virus Village, your Covid data dump.

Though case numbers have already surpassed last summer’s surge, hospitalizations so far are a bit more than half of what they were.

The San Francisco R Number has remained around 1.38, the same as the state, and indicative of the still rapidly spreading virus.

In response to the rapidly increasing Delta variant, the CDC has changed its masking guidance, urging all people, vaccinated or not, to wear masks indoors. Nothing new on mask quality or masking at workplaces.

A variety of talking heads are driving an angry response to the unvaccinated. The Republican governor of Alabama has gone so far as to “blame” the unvaccinated for the surge. Blaming and shaming has only provoked resistance so far in the pandemic and it will do the same this time. Without indulging in moral outrage state and local governments and private companies have begun instituting vaccine mandates among workers.

Here in San Francisco over 300 private bars are requiring customers to prove vaccination to sit indoors and the City will require the same from new City workers.

SFDPH continues to ignore a state law requiring reports on workplace outbreaks. When questionned, DPH remains silent. For its part the state has been issuing opaque and incomplete reports. The most recent report shows that after almost 18 months of Covid, the most dangerous settings are still nursing homes. Kudos to the Governor and CalOsha.

Earlier in the week Dr. Fauci requested several billions of dollars for a program to develop prototype” vaccines to protect against 20 families of viruses. Wait a minute! Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t that the kind of program (verbal tricks aside) the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases was funding in Wuhan and other places (for the past two decades) that may have led to a lab leak? Whether or not that proves to have been the case, it doesn’t take rocket science, or virology, to warn that such a program, without extremely stringent and enforced regulation, could turn into a disaster.

Scroll down for today’s numbers.

The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. As of July 27, DPH reports 76 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and over 69 percent  are completely vaccinated.  On July 27, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 490.For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Vaccination rates seem to make little difference in neighborhood case counts. Between May 24 and July 23, DPH recorded 234 new cases among Mission residents (76 percent vaccinated), or 40 new cases per 10,000 residents. The only other SF neighborhood reporting in excess of 200 cases was Bayview Hunters Point with 314 new cases for a rate of 83 new cases per 10,000 residents. Remember, Bayview Hunters Point has one of the highest vaccination rates in the City (82 percent). Lakeshore, the least vaccinated neighborhood (41 percent), had 39 new cases and a new case rate of 26 new cases per 10,000 residents.

Both in terms of raw and average case numbers, the City has surpassed last summer’s surge. For the week ending July 23, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City rose to 149 new cases, or approximately 22.6 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on 659,000 total residents). Since June 15, when SF completely reopened, this figure has increased 1390 percent and the raw daily case number has increased 2500 percent!! Early indications suggest more exponential growth on the way.

Between July 1 and July 23, DPH reports Whites had 819 new cases (31.9 percent), Latinx 521 new cases (20.3 percent) Asians 434 new cases (16.9 percent), Blacks 394 new cases (15.4 percent) Multi-racials 38 new cases (1.5 percent), Pacific Islanders 23 new cases (1.2 percent) and Native Americans 9 new cases (.4 percent)

Since July 1, hospitalizations have risen 455 percent. SFDPH steadfastly provides the most opaque data on hospitalization. In addition to 0 demographic information, DPH refuses to break out vaccinated from unvaccinated patients.

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows SFGH with 8 Covid patients and 81 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had Covid patients and 41 percent ICU occupancy. Of 44 reported Covid patients, 21 were at either SFGH or UCSF.

Since June 15, the Citywide average positivity rate has risen from .4 percent to 4.5 percent. As of July 23, Latinx residents had a positivity rate of 7.6 percent, Pacific Islanders 2.8 percent, Blacks 2.7 percent, Multi-racials 1.8 percent, Native Americans 1.8 percent, Asians 1.7 percent and Whites 1.4 percent.

Approximately 60 percent of July cases are from those San Franciscans aged 21-39. Those 70 and above make up less than 3 percent of the cases and almost 75 percent of the deaths.

San Francisco recorded its third July Covid-related death on July 16, bringing the total to 561. Only 17 had no “underlying conditions”.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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6 Comments

  1. Mark, you’re making some assertions in this article that sound close to anti-vax/conspiracy propaganda. While I agree SFDPH should be sharing more data, it’s a weird choice to include this piece of editorializing: “Not to worry say DPH and others, the only vaccinated patients are the elderly and those with compromised immunity. Wait! Isn’t that who was hospitalized before the vaccination?”

    Not really – pre-vax, hospitalizations were climbing rapidly in SF and nationwide among even younger and non-immunocompromised demographics. The transmissibility of the Delta variant means there will be a lot more cases and a few more deaths than we saw in the spring, but the vaccine is by and large doing its job.

    1. Citations are needed now more than ever. Nearly 500 days after the shelter-in-place began, SFDPH won’t provide them. Completely unacceptable and in some cases illegal.

      Mission Local should have a dedicated piece on the lack of data from SFDPH and why our elected officials are ignoring this major oversight during a global pandemic. I’d like to know more about who is saying no, and why.

  2. Thanks. I agree. Too much editorializing on my part with that sentence and have deleted it. By far the bigger issue is the lack of data (instead of generalized comments) provided on vaccinated or unvaccinated patients. As I noted, SF provides no demographic data on hospitalizations so I couldn’t say last year who was in the hospital when and beyond an aggregate number for ICU and Acute Care, I have no idea today. If you know of some numbers on that, maybe you can point me in the right direction. Thanks again for the careful read and taking the time to call me out.

  3. Lack of “extremely stringent and enforced regulation” could result in disaster for many things, like the San Francisco DBI and Public Works… Which is why there are strict safety protocols already established. The US has a level 4 lab in Galveston, TX. If you want to look into that more, they have contact information for media. https://www.utmb.edu/GNL

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