Good Morning Mission and welcome to Virus Village, your Covid data dump.

The San Francisco R Number has fallen to approximately 1.4, indicative of the virus’ rapid spread and higher than California and other counties in the Bay Area.

Booming case numbers, soaring positivity rates and rising hospitalizations (though not as fast) have yet to spur more vaccinations (see below) .

The Chron ran an article asking why SF had such a high case rate relative to the state and other counties. No real answer was given, though SFDPH says the case numbers are high because they are doing more tests. The Chron, naturally, did not question that assertion. There has been an increase in testing locally (see below), but unclear how it compares to other counties. Note the Chron does not use the same data source as Mission Local (SFDPH).

There are increasing reports of infections among people fully vaccinated. SFDPH has said that the numbers are very low and hospitalizations among the vaccinated are even lower. They have not provided numbers to back up these assertions.

Around the country, the difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated is pronounced as it appears the current surge is being driven by the unvaccinated. Former CDC director Tom Frieden has a long thread on what we might expect.

Data which has been made available shows the infections among people fully vaccinated rarely lead to “severe illness” and/or death. Most “breakthrough” infections result in few or “mild” symptoms. Note “mild” or “moderate” may be in the eye of the beholder. Though Public Health Director Dr. Grant Colfax described “mild” as “the sniffles”, don’t be surprised, or alarmed, if it’s considerably more than that. When docs say “mild” or “moderate” they mean you don’t need to go to the hospital. Anyone who has had the flu knows that staying home in bed with fever, aches and disorientation, may use different terminology.

SFDPH appears to be taking a “wait and see” approach which differs markedly from last March. Not that they have many, or any, options (like a credible test-trace-quarantine program). Meanwhile the City’s bar owners may require proof of vaccination to enter. Vaccine “passports” or “mandates” may be generally required soon, with the potential to make the politics of masking look rather “mild” in comparison.

Note: SFDPH has a new Covid Dashboard. It looks better, but critical data, including some data previously reported, seems to be missing.

Meanwhile, the SFPD is doing the best it can to get back to normal.

Scroll down for today’s numbers.

The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. As of July 22, DPH reports over 75 percent (659,088) of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and over 69 percent (602,092) are completely vaccinated.  On July 22, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was only 462.For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Between May 19 and July 18, DPH recorded 166 new cases among Mission residents, or 28 new cases per 10,000 residents. Over that period, 21 neighborhoods (12 in the southeast sector) had rates exceeding 20 new cases per 10,000 residents. The epicenter of the local pandemic continues to be Bayview Hunters Point with 220 new cases for a rate of 58 new cases per 10,000 residents.

For the week ending July 15, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City  105 new cases, or approximately 16 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on 659,000 total residents)

Between July 1 and July 18, Whites had 30.9 percent of the new cases, Latinx 20.4 percent, Asians 17.3 percent, Blacks 15.2 percent, Multi-racials 1.5, Pacific Islanders 1.2 percent and Native Americans .1 percent.

Either I can’t find it on the new dashboard or SFDPH is no longer providing weekly rate increases and hospital capacity numbers. I would have thought that after a year, they would be providing more information, not less. The daily count rose by 2 patients (both in Acute Care) since yesterday.

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows SFGH with 8 Covid patients and 78 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had Covid patients and 21 percent ICU occupancy. Of 28 reported Covid patients, 17 were at either SFGH or UCSF.

The average number of daily tests has increased by about 200 tests since July 5, when it was at a recent low of 2,583. Over the past two months, the positivity rate in the Mission has been 1.7 percent.

From July 1 through July 18, San Franciscans aged 0-4 had 3.8 percent of reported cases, 5-10 3.6 percent, 11-13 1.5 percent, 14-17 1.5 percent, 18-20 2.2 percent, 21-24 10 percent, 25-29 21.7 percent, 30-39 29 percent, 40-49 12.5 percent, 50-59 7.6 percent, 60-69 3.9 percent, 70-79 1.7 percent and, 80+ 1.1 percent of new cases.

San Francisco recorded its third July Covid-related death on July 16, bringing the total to 561. Those older than 59 make up approximately 88 percent of SF Covid-related deaths.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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  1. glad to see the covid tracker in my twitter tl again

    i mean, it all sucks and i wish we didnt need it, but im grateful you’re keeping us informed

  2. glad to see the covid tracker in my twitter tl again.

    i mean, it all sucks and i wish we didnt need it, but im grateful you’re keeping us informed.

  3. Any ideas as to why SF DPH is so lame? What’s the deal with Grant Colfax?
    Also, there should be a mask mandate in SF due to our very high numbers across the board. If LA County can do it, why not SF? Since vaccination rates have stagnated, unvaccinated people are putting children, immunocompromised and chronically ill people at high risk of infection.

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