COVID Tracker: The Delta variant takes hold

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Good Morning Mission and welcome to Virus Village, your Covid data dump.

With the R Number currently at approximately 1.61, while case numbers and positivity rates surge, we can be assured that the highly transmissible Delta variant is very prevalent in the City. Hospitalizations are also rising, but not as rapidly, which is a good sign so far.

There are lots of questions, but as usual in this pandemic, very few answers.

Tomorrow, SF Health Officer, Dr. Susan Philiip will be appearing at Manny’s (on Zoom also) to discuss lessons from the pandemic. Here’s your chance to ask questions. Don’t hold back. Though SF deserves plaudits for its role in vaccination and (finally) incorporating community organizations, this is no time for celebration.

We did get some reassurances this morning from UCSF Dr. Carina Marquez who reported on the Delta variant with the Latino Task Force. Marquez said the uptick in cases can be attributed to relaxed restrictions and a more transmissible Delta variant. Hospitalizations in San Francisco, she said, are key and up 27 percent, but “still low.”

“We’re watching those very closely,” she said adding that the “vast majority” of those hospitalized across the state are unvaccinated. The vaccines, especially two doses, are very effective, she said.

Questions I have for DPH: Why doesn’t DPH report hospitalizaton demographics (especially vaccination status of patients)? Why doesn’t the DPH report contact tracing results? With very low infection rates over the past two months, what has DPH done to improve contact tracing? Why doesn’t DPH report workplace outbreaks (which are now mandated by the state)?

As Ed Yong in the Atlantic reports, vaccines are working against the Delta, but with the high rate of unvaccinated populations (estimated around 85 percent of the world), Delta poses potential long-run problems for everybody. Vaccinations are particularly low throughout Africa where Covid is hitting hard.

Also good news regarding Delta surges comes from Scotland where despite more cases than the previous variant, hospitalizations are about 75 percent less and what was a rapid rise quickly is becoming a rapid fall.

Finally, check back later with Misson Local as we are currently covering a City briefing on the local situation.

Scroll down for today’s numbers.

The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. As of July 18, DPH reports over 83 percent (656,507) of San Francisco residents over 12 have received one dose, and over 76 percent (600,515) are completely vaccinated.  On July 18, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 888.For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Between June 15 and July 12, DPH recorded 96 new cases, or 16.3 new cases per 10,000 residents among Mission residents. Over that period, the Citywide rate was 13.2 new cases per 10,000 residents and 21 neighborhoods (13 in the southeast sector) had rates exceeding 10 new cases per 10,000 residents. The epicenter of the local pandemic continues to be Bayview Hunters Point with 127 new cases for a rate of 33.5 new cases per 10,000 residents. Other than the Mission and Excelsior, no other neighborhood reported more than 50 new cases.

For the week ending July 11, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 68 new cases, or 7.8 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.

Numbers for July will not be available until tomorrow.

For the week ending July 15, DPH reports the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients rose 29 percent. During the week of July 15,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 41 percent and Acute Care availability was 26 percent. On July 15, Covid patients accounted for 4.9 percent of ICU occupancy and 1.18 percent of Acute Care occupancy, and DPH reports 100 percent ICU and 100 percent Acute Care available for a potential surge.

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows SFGH with 4 Covid patients and 68 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had 2 Covid patients and 46 percent ICU occupancy. Of 24 reported Covid patients, 18 were at either SFGH or UCSF.

The 3.05 percent figure cited above is for July 15. This is the first time the Citywide average positivity rate has been above 3 percent since late January. As of July 14, the July positivity rate among Mission residents was 3.5 percent. In Bayview Hunters Point, the rate was 6.2 percent.

In June, San Franciscans aged 0-4 had 19 reported cases, 5-10 29, 11-13 5, 14-17 4, 18-20 22, 21-24 56, 25-29 76, 30-39 115, 40-49 60, 50-59 34, 60-69 11, 70-79 6, 80+ 4. Figures for July will not be available until tomorrow.

San Francisco recorded its first July Covid-related death on July 2, bringing the total to 558.