Good Morning Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your Covid-19 data dump.
The exponential growth in Covid cases is beginning to look a lot like last July. As Peter Khoury noted, humans are not wired to really understand exponential growth. We tend to dimiss low numbers today which turn out to be high numbers tomorrow.
The 7 day rolling average number of cases rose from 10.5 on June 15 to 51 as of July 8. That’s over a 400 percent rise in about three weeks and 21 percent higher than yesterday’s figure.
Language has been a stumbling block since the pandemic began. A Covid “case” generally refers to the presence of the virus molecule found in an individual’s nose or throat by a PCR test. It does not necessarily mean the virus has evolved into the disease. Generally case numbers give a rough idea of the prevalence of the virus circulating in a community.
What proved true during the first year of the pandemic was that case numbers were almost always reflected in, and followed by, increased hospitalizations, which from a public health perspective was where the real problem lay. Our mostly privatized, decentralized and profit-oriented hospitals were in danger of collapse and regional systems verged on collapse.
With the advent of the vaccine, the link between case numbers and hospitalizations may not hold. The virus may be detected in a vaccinated individual, but that doesn’t mean it will lead to the disease, much less a severe disease requiring hospitalization.
In addition, the Delta variant has been shown be highly transmissible, but not more severe than earlier variants. Some have pointed to a “de-coupling” between case numbers and hospitalizations in places with high Delta spread and relatively high vaccination rates like the UK.
In San Francisco, there has been an “uptick” in Covid hospitalizations, but according to DPH, all of those currently hospitalized with Covid at SFGH have not been vaccinated. In San Diego, almost all cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been among the unvaccinated.
UCSF’s Dr. Monica Gandhi had suggested earlier that a hospitalization rate of 5 per 100,000 residents (a rate lower than flu hospitalizations during the height of flu season) should be low enough, along with high vaccination rates, to justify fully reopening local businesses and schools.
In San Francisco we currently have less than 3 Covid hospitalizations per 100,000 residents.
Note: Covid R Estimation for California, the R Number estimate we’ve used, apparently stopped pubishing at the end of June. We will be providing a new chart based on the California COVID Assessment Tool (which I have referred to as “the ensemble”). I suggest you refer to that page in the meanwhile. Currently the ensemble estimates the San Francisco R Number at 1.63 and the California R Number at 1.37.
Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. As of July 15, DPH reports over 83 percent (654,830) of San Francisco residents over 12 have received one dose, and over 76 percent (598,818) are completely vaccinated. On July 15, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 881. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.
Between June 12 and July 11, DPH recorded 74 new cases, or 12.6 new cases per 10,000 residents among Mission residents. The highest number of new cases was 102 recorded Bayview Hunters Point (26.90 cases per 10,000 residents), despite a vaccination rate of 80 percent. Lakeshore, which has had the lowest neighborhood vaccination rate (currently 41 percent) recorded 8 new cases over the month, or less than 5 per 10,000 residents. The Citywide rate of new cases was 10.3 per 10,000 residents.
For the week ending July 8, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 51 new cases, or 5.8 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.
According to City health officials (and Mayor London Breed), Blacks and Latinx residents are most affected by the current surge in cases. Citywide, 28% of the hospitalizations are African American. Although San Francisco has been seen as a model for vaccinating Blacks and Latinx, apparently it hasn’t been sufficient.
For the week ending July 12, DPH reports the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients rose 26 percent. During the week of July 12, the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 41 percent and Acute Care availability was 29 percent. On July 12, Covid patients accounted for 4.2 percent of ICU occupancy and .99 percent of Acute Care occupancy, and DPH reports 100 percent ICU and 100 percent Acute Care available for a potential surge.
The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows SFGH with 4 Covid patients and 68 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had 2 Covid patients and 46 percent ICU occupancy. Of 24 reported Covid patients, 18 were at either SFGH or UCSF.
The 2.42 percent figure cited above is for July 11. As of July 11, the July positivity rate among Mission residents was 3.1 percent. In Bayview Hunters Point, the rate was over 6 percent, and in Lakeshore the rate was 2.1 percent.
In June, San Franciscans aged 0-4 had 19 reported cases, 5-10 29, 11-13 5, 14-17 4, 18-20 22, 21-24 56, 25-29 76, 30-39 115, 40-49 60, 50-59 34, 60-69 11, 70-79 6, 80+ 4.
San Francisco recorded its first July Covid-related death on July 2, bringing the total to 558.
When the weather gets dryer air quality gets worse and I think that might make people more vulnerable. I’m guessing your lungs get inflammed when your immune system is trying to deal with the particulate matter you’re breathing and that seems to be what the virus likes to latch on to. So I’m going to keep wearing a mask even though I got vaccinated.
I am glad I am not the only person who questions Dr. Gandhi’s view. She still thinks Covid is turning into an epidemic like flu, and anybody who disagrees with her view is considered fear mongering. Does the # suggest we have turned Covid into an epidemic? Just look at UK.
FWIW, she also thought India reached herd immunity right before it was hit by Delta.
It’s great she tries to educate people about the vaccine, but Dr. Gandhi, along with other TV talking heads, should really think about what they say. They have large fan base on social media and some people such as antimask & antivax, often use their buzz words to spread misinformation.
Today, 7/17, the New York Times reports: “An average of 91 cases per day were reported in San Francisco County, a 365 percent increase from the average two weeks ago.” They also report 2 deaths in the last two weeks. I agree that Monica Gandhi has been bafflingly oblivious to issues like breakthrough infections, infections in children and in the immunocompromised.
The other issue is long Covid: even if the death rate stays low, that doesn’t mean that there are no consequences from infection. A friend’s husband, fully vaccinated, got Covid a few months ago and ended up with kidney failure and kidneys so damaged he has to be on dialysis for life. So I’m taking the same precautions I used before I got vaccinated: double-masking and avoiding crowded indoor spaces.
So very glad to see this feature return.
It’s troubling to me how Dr. Gandhi seems to completely ignore the safety of people who, though fully vaccinated, have other health conditions that make the vaccines less effective. What about cancer survivors, people with organ transplants, and those with other health conditions that put them at greater risk?
Indeed, despite the expectations following being fully open the numbers are rising at a steady pace reminiscent of March 2020. Not quite up to the summer 2020 surge yet, but that is not inconceivable as things go. I became even more concerned yesterday when a singer-songwriter friend of mine said that she contracted COVID. She is fully vaxxed, and had a negative test the first time around, but was diagnosed the second time. After going through the “regular” symptoms she came out with no sense of smell and will be quarantined until July 23. I, for one, will be more cautious about doing what’s necessary for myself (and others) in indoor, and crowded, conditions. This is real, and for me, it’s closer to home than ever.
“UCSFās Dr. Monica Gandhi had suggested earlier that a hospitalization rate of 5 per 100,000 residents (a rate lower than flu hospitalizations during the height of flu season) should be low enough, along with high vaccination rates, to justify fully reopening local businesses and schools.”
Gandhi has been a consistent cheerleader for reopening all along. What we really need is consistent mass testing to figure out where this upsurge is going, and how to isolate and defeat it. Instead what we have is random testing, and a “reopening vs. lockdown” narrative propounded by an assortment of talking heads and pundits that pits people against each other. This story is nothing new — it is the problem that has dogged us from the beginning of the pandemic.