COVID Tracker: 37,726 cases, 557 deaths

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Good Morning Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

What a bummer! I thought I was through with this. Note: I will probably not be publishing daily, unless the situation deteriorates. Charts will be available and updated daily on our Covid Tracker page.

The 7 day rolling average number of cases rose from 10.5 on June 15 to 42 as of July 7. That’s an exponential growth of 320 percent in about three weeks. Hospitalizations are up, though not nearly as much. It’s too soon to tell whether the vaccine has “de-linked” hospitlizations from case counts. Likewise, there’s been a surge in citywide positivity rates from .48 percent to 2 percent and the R number is at it’s highest with an average of 1.75. All this points to the presence of the highly transmissible Delta variant.

Numbers may not be soaring, but they are definitely “surging” (around California as well as SF).

So what to make of it? Though San Francisco has one of the highest vaccination rates in the country/world, no one should be surprised at the increase, given the presence of Delta and the full re-opening. Without data breaking down case and hospitalization figures among those who have been vaccinated and those who have not, uncertainty rules. SFDPH has been surprisingly silent. Their response so far is to urge more vaccination. (Note the Chronicle uses different data source for its Covid reporting).

Most observers, and studies, continue to credit the vaccine with preventing symptomatic and serious disease. And remember, with The Vaccine, a “breakthrough infecton” doesn’t mean a “breakthrough disease”. Some who get vaccinated remain relatively vulnerable, and not surprisingly those are among the elderly, those with one or more underlying conditions and those who are immunocompromised.

Speaking of “at risk”, a recent study shows Mission Station, long a center of police misconduct, stands out, and not in a good way, for “potentially problematic patterns or behaviors among members of the department.”

Nothing problematic or concerning about the surge of NoodleMania in the Mission.

In other news, Mission artist Yolanda Lopez receives a $50,000 fellowship, The Jelly Donut repopens, and we remember longtime Mission political activist Betita Martinez.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. As of July 14, DPH reports 83 percent (654,242) of San Francisco residents over 12 have received one dose, and over 76 percent (598,180) are completely vaccinated.  On July 14, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 956. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Through June 28, Covid-19 R Estimation puts the San Francisco R Number at 1.06, the same as its California estimate. I can’t explain why their numbers are not current. Meanwhile as of July 13, the ensemble estimates San Francisco’s R Number at 1.75 (an all-time high) and an average estimate for California at 1.38.

So far, SFDPH has not published neighborhood case data today. Yesterday, however, I noticed those neighborhoods with the highest raw numbers and case rates (which included the Mission) were almost all in the Southeast sector, all with vaccination rates above 70%. As of July 14, 74 percent of Mission residents have received the vaccine.

For the week ending July 7, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 42 new cases, or 4.8 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.

We don’t have the breakdown of cases by race and ethnicity for the month of July yet, and don’t expect to see anything until July 18. In June, the Latinx population had 148 new cases, Whites, 114, Asians 61, Blacks 55, Multi-racials 17, Pacific Islanders 12 and Native Americans 0.

It’s too soon to say whether the vaccine has delinked hospitalizations from case numbers. For the week ending July 11, DPH reports the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients rose 27 percent. During the week of July 11,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 42 percent and Acute Care availability was 30 percent. On July 11, Covid patients accounted for 2.45 percent of ICU occupancy and 1.05 percent of Acute Care occupancy, and DPH reports 100 percent ICU and 99 percent Acute Care available for a potential surge.

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows SFGH with 4 Covid patients and 68 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had 2 Covid patients and 46 percent ICU occupancy. Of 24 reported Covid patients, 18 were at either SFGH or UCSF.

From June 1 through June 26, the positivity rate for Latinx was 1.96 percent, Blacks 1.12 percent, and Whites .42 percent and Asians .24 percent. For other groups, the rate was negligible. Between May 11 and July 10, the Mission had a positivity rate of 1.15 percent. During that time, Bayview Hunters Point (with a vaccination rate of 80 percent) had a positivity rate of 2.12 percent, while in Lakeshore (with a vaccination rate of 40 percent) the positivity rate was negligible.

In June, San Franciscans aged 0-4 had 19 reported cases, 5-10 29, 11-13 5, 14-17 4, 18-20 22, 21-24 56, 25-29 76, 30-39 115, 40-49 60, 50-59 34, 60-69 11, 70-79 6, 80+ 4.

San Francisco’s 557th Covid-related death was recorded on June 12. In the month of June there were 5 Covid-related SF deaths, and 0 deaths recorded yet in July.