Good Morning Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

After today, Mission Local will discontinue Covid Tracker as a feature. We will continue to provide feature stories on the virus and daily Covid data and graphs on our data page. The daily data feature may return if circumstances warrant.

Masks or no masks, it’s obvious the pandemic is still very much alive. As case numbers in SF are low, they have begun rising among Latinx residents, especially in relation to their population size. And around the world the situation is far worse.

With “public health” an oxymoron in the U.S., an economy obsessed with profiteering and a political system, often inexplicable, it is no wonder that fear (and shutdowns) became the primary strategy employed to contain the virus. Fear works, for a while, but it’s got its downsides.

It’s been an emotional year all around, as Julien, an 8th grader, documents for the Report Card.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. As of June 14, DPH reports over 80 percent (632,676) of San Francisco residents over 12 have received one dose, and over 70 percent (557,352) are completely vaccinated.  In addition, 90 percent of San Franciscans 65 and older had received at least one shot, while 81 percent are completely vaccinated.On June 14, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 2,228. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Covid-19 R Estimation lowered its estimate of the San Francisco R Number again to .91, while raising its California estimate to .85. The ensemble is generally in line, with an average estimate for San Francisco’s R Number at .85, and an average estimate for California at .79.

Nieghborhood numbers stay the same as yesterday. Between May 12 and June 11, DPH reports 37 positive tests in the Mission or a rate of 6.20 new cases per 10,000 residents. Bayview Hunters Point remains the City’s hottest Covid spot with 66 positive tests or 17.65 new cases per 10,000 residents. Only Bayview Hunters Point, Visitacion Valley, Oceanview/Ingleside and the Mission reported more than 20 positive tests .

For the week ending June 7, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 14 new cases, or 1.6 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.

As of June 10, the case rate (per 10,000 residents) for San Franciscans during the pandemic were as follows: Pacific Islanders 1696, Latinx 1123, Native American 800, Blacks 532, Whites 235, Asians 227 and Muti-racials 187. The Citywide case rate was 424. As the chart points out, the relative disparity among communities has not disappeared.

With relatvely low raw numbers, high percentage increases can be misleading. For the week ending June 11, DPH reports the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients rose 59 percent (the totals rose from 11 on June 4 to 16 on June 10). During the week of June 11,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 37 percent and Acute Care availability was 26 percent. On June 11, Covid patients accounted for 1.75 percent of ICU occupancy and .7 percent of Acute Care occupancy, and DPH reports 100 percent ICU and 100 percent Acute Care available for a potential surge.

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows SFGH with 6 Covid patients and 80 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had 0 Covid patients and 37 percent ICU occupancy. Of 15 reported Covid patients, 13 were at either SFGH or UCSF.

From June 1 through June 10, the positivity rate for Latinx was 2.28 percent, Blacks 1.18 percent, and Whites .35 percent. For other groups, the rate was negligible. Between April 11 and June 10, the Mission had a positivity rate of .87 percent. Four neighborhoods had positivity rates over 1 percent, including Visitacion Valley, Western Addition, Bayview Hunters Point (where the vaccination rate is among the highest) and Lakeshore (the City neighborhood least vaccinated).

In May DPH recorded 12 positive tests and 0 deaths among the unhoused. Only 2 positive tests and 0 deaths were reported in Skilled Nursing Facilities. In Single Resident Occupancy hotels (SROs), DPH reports 10 positive tests and 0 deaths during the month of May.

San Francisco’s 550th Covid-related death was recorded on June 4. In the month of May there were 5 Covid-related SF deaths. Through the pandemic, 75 percent of all deaths were San Franciscans above the age of 69. Only 2.9 percent of all deaths had no underlying conditions.

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Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been." He has maintained our Covid tracker through most of the pandemic, taking some breaks with his search for the Mission's best fried-chicken sandwich and now its best noodles. When the Warriors make the playoffs, he writes up his take on the games.

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  1. SFDPH Covid-19 Cases and Deaths chart did not update this morning (Jul 6) by 9AM as usual. Looking at yesterday’s chart, the total of cases for most recent 7 days including the 3 days of “Less Reliable, Likely to be Updated” numbers was 150. Dividing 150 by 7 gets a “New Cases 7-day Rolling Average” of 21.4. The case numbers in the “Less Reliable, Likely to be Updated” generally have not changed in recent weeks by more than 1 or 2. Unless there has been a bug in the SFDPH case collection and reporting, SF case average has more than doubled on June 30 from the low point of less than 10 on June 19. Even just going back one week, the case average has gone up by 83%. The last time SF saw this sharp of a week-to-week percentage increase of over 80% was on December 5 in the post-Thanksgiving surge when the daily 7-day average went from 129 to 240 in one week.

    The huge difference between the post-Thanksgiving percentage increase and the similar current percentage increase is the current increase started from a daily case average of 12 versus 129 in December. There is currently much lower potential impact on hospital care resources. But if the high percentage increases continue over the next week, we can fall back to case numbers not seen since before SF reopening on March 3.

    I see news reports of recent case increases in LA, but none for SF yet. There are reports today about expecting possible surge in Bay Area from July 4 weekend, but if the SFDPH report of cases doesn’t change, there is already the beginnings of a possible surge on June 30 even before the July 4 weekend.

    Here is hoping the SF high vaccination rate will halt the recent high percentage increases.

  2. A very late thanks to Mission Local for these daily updates. They helped me understand what was going on and make decisions based on risk. Also appreciate the coverage of UCSF Grand Rounds.

  3. I would like to add my thanks for your diligent work on this! Intelligent, clear, trustworthy—you’ ve provided a great service to the people of San Francisco.

  4. Thank you as well! I’ve been checking in every few days and you have no idea how much your work has meant to me!

  5. Thank you for keeping this going so long. It’s been my go to source for quite a while. Hopefully it doesn’t have to come back. Cheers!

  6. Thank you for the outstanding work you’ve done on the coronavirus in San Francisco, especially your investigations into the complete abandonment by Breed and Colfax for the first seven months of the pandemic of the people at the epicenter of the pandemic in SF: the Latinx community in the Mission. And for keeping the pressure on them, since even when testing started in the Mission at the end of Sept. it didn’t come from the City, but from the Latinx Task Force and UCSF, and it was at a much lower amount than at the Embarcadero. Would love for you to do a retrospective overview of the massive failure of City government on this issue, lest we forget.

  7. Would like to see you keep the covid tracker daily updates for longer. Just the graphs are hard to decipher.

  8. Thank you for your work making sense of this mess. These bulletins have been the only source of good data for Covid in SF for the last year +. Your commitment to the safety of the SF community is admirable. Thank you.