Good Morning Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Cases in Michigan have recently taken a serious fall. Is the B117 variant surge subsiding?

The Bay Area is embracing the Vaccine and it shows in the data; only 15 SF hospitalizations on April 30.

Though hospitalizations are down here, in some areas where vaccine uptake is weak, there is increasing evidence of serious cases among younger people (probably a result of B117 variant).

And not everywhere in the State (or country or world) is the Bay Area. Attention turns now to responding to those who either don’t want The Vaccine or are unsure about it, especially in places like the San Joaquin valley which was heavily hit in the last surge.

Should the U.S. vaccinate adolescents now, or export to countries in dire need? And as noted before, it’s not only The Vaccine which developing countries can’t obtain.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

The CDC data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from SFDPH. As of May 3, DPH reports over  72 percent (554,848) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and over 49 percent (379,742) are completely vaccinated.  On May 3, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 6,800. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

According to Covid-19 R Estimation the San Francisco R number continues to hang around 1, while the California R number is at .91. The ensemble estimates the average SF R Number at .8, while its California R Number average estimate is .88.

Between March 31 and April 29, DPH reports 75 new cases in the Mission or 12.6 new cases per 10,000 residents. The hardest hit area by rate since the beginning is the area bounded by 23rd, Cesar Chavez, South Van Ness and Harrison with 985.7 cases per 10,000 residents. The area with the highest number of confirmed Covid cases (617) is the area bounded by 17th, 23rd, Valencia and South Van Ness.

For the week ending April 26, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 26 new cases, or 2.9 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.

We’ve known for over a century that poverty and discrimation drive disease, but it’s never been more evident. SFDPH does not provide socio-economic data.

Hospitalization numbers and trends are looking good. For the week ending April 30, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 31 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 37 percent and Acute Care availability was 24 percent. On April 30, DPH reports Covid patients comprised 2.1 percent of ICU occupancy and .8 percent of Acute Care occupancy.  DPH reports on April 30, the City had 100 percent ICU and 100 percent Acute Care surge capacity.

The latest data from the Federal Health and Human Services department shows last week SFGH had 6 Covid patients and 80 percent ICU occupancy. On the other side of the Mission, CPMC had 2 Covid patients and 34 percent ICU occupancy.

In January, the positivity rate among Mission residents was 5 percent. As of April 29, the April positivity rate among Mission residents is .86 percent.

Is it possible the California positivity rate will dip below 1 percent?

As of April 29, 490 men and 396 women have tested positive during the month. There have been 0 trans male or trans female cases yet in April. Two cases are of “unknown” gender.

Although the cumulative number has risen, the Covid-related death toll in San Francisco remains at 6 so far in April.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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