Covid tracker

Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Although the virus seems to be relatively stable these days in SF, around the country there are many contradictory signs and mixed messages. You think you’re confused? Check out the latest thread from UCSF’s Dr. Bob Wachter.

The virologist who “wrote the book” thinks concern over the threat posed by the variants to those who are vaccinated is over the top. Like UCSF’s Dr. Monica Gandhi, he puts a lot of hope, and trust in our T cells.

The Latino Task Force has opened up an essential services hub to help connect people to the resources they need.

Meet Ramiro Gutierrez Ortiz, paletero (ice-cream seller). It’s not as safe a job as you might think.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

 

As of April 5, 50 percent (387,623) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and 30 percent (230,307) had received two.  On April 5, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 11,626. The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Adding somewhat to the confusion,  Covid-19 R Estimation  keeps its San Francisco R  Number estimate at 1.09 while raising its  California estimate to .96. But the ensemble held  its average estimate for San Francisco at  .77 and lowered the estiimate for California to .78

Between March 5 and April 3,  DPH added 84 new cases to the Mission or a rate of 14 new cases per 10,000 residents. During that time, the Marina, Tenderloin and Sunset/Parkside reported over 50 cases, while four reported over 30 and most neighborhoods reported fewer than 25 new positive tests.

For the week ending March 29, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 38 or 4.3 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.

In March, Whites had the highest number and the highest percentage of the month’s new cases. However case rates tell a different story.  Based on the group’s population, Pacific Islanders had a case rate of 59, Latinx 20, Blacks 18, Whites 11, Multi-racials 8, Asians 7.4 and Native Americans 7.3. In March, the Citywide case rate was 12.4 .  

For the week ending April 4, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 29 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 33 percent and Acute Care availability was 24 percent. On April 4, Covid patients made up 1.4 percent of available ICU and 1.4 percent of Acute Care beds.  Surge capacity is reported to be at 100 percent for both ICU and Acute Care. 

According to most recent data from the Federal Department of Health and Human Services, ovr the past week, SFGH reported 8 Covid patients and an ICU occupancy of 83 percent, while across the Mission, CPMC reported 2 Covid patients and an ICU occupancy of 51 percent.

Although testng numbers have dropped significantly since January, the City has maintained a relatvely high average number of tests administered. In March, Pacific Islanders had a rate of  555 tests per 1000 residents while Native Americans had a rate of 338, Blacks 199, Whites 167, Asians 131, Latinx 111, and Multi-racials 108 tests per 1000 residents. The Citywide rate was 147 per 1000 residents.

Despite low remarkably low case numbers, contact tracing numbers remain firmly, as they have been since last June, in a narrow band in the “low alert” zone. For the two weeks ending March 26, City tracers have interviewed 86 percent of those who tested positive, and reached  85 percent of their contacts. Although DPH regards contact tracing a “key health indictor” it doesn’t explain the odd consistency, nor does it provide any information on what contact tracing has discovered as to where outbreaks have happened. 

One number is blessedly not confusing. On April 4, the U.S. recorded 222 deaths, the fewest since March 23, 2020.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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1 Comment

  1. Absolutely incredible to have hit 50% of SF having had their first shot. Great milestone.

    Worth noting that the recent increase in the number of cases puts the SF case rate at 4.0 (“adjusted” to 2.0 for tier allocation) per 100,000 – or just north of the newly expanded yellow tier.

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