Good Morning Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

The CDC has revised its outdoor mask recommendations for fully vaccinated people, and California has revised its mandate. Despite relatively low stable numbers and high vaccination rates, San Franciscans do not seem anxious to discard their masks.

In the absence of hard data, Covid policies (such as schools) have often been driven by computer modeling, for better and worse.

In the latest installment of Report Card, closed school and remote learning helped, rather than hindered at least one student.

If you are avoiding vaccination in the hopes a pill will be coming soon, you’re going to have a long wait.

Perhaps no group has been as cruelly treated by the virus and the authorities as undocumented immigrants. Kate reports the dismal efforts made by California’s purportedly “liberal” government to help those who plant, pick, pack and prepare our food, take care of our kids and generally do the work no one else will do.

There’s a new mural in town recognizing the old Mission Coalition Organization.

While waiting for The Pill, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

Note there are some discrepancies from the CDC data used for the chart and the data supplied from SFDPH. As of April 27, DPH reports  70 percent (536,389) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and over 45 percent (349,260) are completely vaccinated.  On April 27, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was down to 7,388. The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Covid-19 R Estimation has brought its estimate of the San Francisco R number down to .92 while maintaining its estimate for California at .88. All the models in the ensemble place the SF R Number below 1 with an average estimate of .86, while its California R Number average estimate stayed stable at .85.

As of April 26, DPH reports approximately 61 percent of Mission residents over 16 have received at least one vaccination shot. The neighborhood with the highest percentage is Japatown (71 percent), closely followed by Mission Bay, Portola and Potrero Hill. The neighborhood with the lowest vaccine uptake remains Lakeshore with 32 percent. The only other neighborhod in the City below 40 percent is Treasure Island.

For the week ending April 20, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 33 new cases, or 3.7 new cases per day per 100,000 residents. Since March 4, the weekly average new case count has been below 40 and above 30.

Based on the group’s population, as of April 23, Pacific Islanders has an April case rate of 66.9, Blacks 22.7, Native Americans 14, Latinx 9.3, Whites 7.5, Multi-racials 4.9, and Asians 4.8 while the Citywide rate is 8.4.

On April 24, ICU patients remained in double figures as Acute Care numbers dropped again. For the week ending April 24, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 11 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 37 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On April 24, DPH reports Covid patients comprised 4.2 percent of ICU occupancy and 1 percent of Acute Care occupancy.  DPH reports on April 24, the City had 100 percent ICU and 98 percent Acute Care surge capacity

The latest data from the Federal Health and Human Services department shows last week SFGH had 6 Covid patients and 77 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had 2 Covid patients and 44 percent ICU occupancy.

As of April 23, Pacific Islanders had an April positivity rate of 2.06 percent, Blacks 1.74 percent, Latinx 1.54 percent, Whites .85 percent, Multi-racials .74 percent, and Asians .68 percent. For Native Americans, the rate was negligible.

California’s average positivity rate has been falling since mid-February and is now at a record low.

Despite stable and relatively low case numbers, the City’s contact tracing program has failed to show much progress. For the two weeks ending April 23, tracers intereviewed 84 percent of those who had tested positive (up from 82 percent over the previous period) and reached 81 percent of their contacts (up from 80 percent). For almost a year, as cases have risen and fallen, contact tracing numbers remain roughly between 75 and 85 percent. DPH has provided zero information from its contact tracing activities since last October.

Although the cumulative number remains the same, DPH now reports one additional Covid-related death in April for a total of 2.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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