Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Shocked by the new death toll? Take a deep breath (unless you’re in a crowded, congested, unventilated room) and see below.

We know more today about the coronovirus than we did a year ago, but how much is really known?

One thing we’ve learned about the response to the virus, is that without adequate public health interventions — test, trace, quarantine — whether economies are opened or closed, the same people are most at risk.

When the next pandemic hits, will our crippled, underfunded public health infrastructure be ready to do more than tell people to wear masks and keep away from each other?

Meet Evelyn Fong and Martha Ruiz de la Peña, who fell in love in a video store.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

 

Note there are some discrepancies from the CDC data used for the chart and the data supplied from SFDPH. As of April 19, DPH reports 64 percent (493,507) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and 42 percent (319,705) are completely vaccinated.  On April 19, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 10,297. The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Not much change on the R Number front. Covid-19 R Estimation  put  the San Francisco R Number at 1.09 (one of the highest in the State) while keeping it’s estimate for the California R  Number to .95. Most models in the ensemble have the San Francisco R Number below 1, with an average estimate of .78 which is the same for California. 

Between March 17 and April 15, DPH reported 72 new cases in the Mission, or 12.1 new cases per 10,000 residents. The Citywide rate for that period was 12.2 new cases per 10,000 residents. The trend noted earlier has kept up with the highest new case rates in whiter and wealthier neighborhoods like FiDi/South Beach, 29,8, Marina 29.2 North Beach 21.5 and Pacific Heights 20 new cases per 10,000 residents.

For the week ending April 12, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 33 or 3.8 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.

The trend toward new cases predominately among whiter/wealthier residents  now has some recent confirming data. Between April 1 and April 15, Whites had 195 cases, Asian 104, Latinx 82, Blacks 48, Multi-racials and Pacific Islanders 15 and among Native Americans only one case.

Other than a small increase in ICU patients, hospitalizations have remained essentially flat during most of the month. For the week ending April 16, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 4 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 35 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On April 16, DPH reports Covid patients comprised 4.2 percent of ICU occupancy and 1.1 percent of Acute Care occupancy.  No, DPH still does not provide any demographic or cumulative information regarding hospitalizations.

The latest data from the Federal Health and Human Services department shows last week SFGH had 7 Covid patients and 82 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC  had 2 Covid patients and 54 percent ICU occupancy.

Though Whites have higher case numbers so far in April, Latinx residents had the highest postivity rate with 1.6 percent postivity based on 6,811 tests, Blacks had 1.5 percent positivity based on 3,825 tests, Whites had 1 percent positivity based on 25,569 tests and Asians had .77 percent based on 16,784 percent. Note: the raw numbers of positive tests do not correlate with the case numbers given above, however, the relative proportions generally hold. 

 

Although Whites have had proportionately more deaths recently, the case and death tolls cumulatively have not changed much. Those 60 and older account for 16 percent of the cases and 89 percent of the deaths.

This graph will update shortly. The 529 figure was recorded on April 12. Although only one death was recorded in April three  days ago when the cumulative total was  513, there is still only one April death. For March the total rose from 17 to 20, mainly due to 12 deaths added to the March 1 figure. Confusing? You bet. The main takeaway is when we look at death numbers, we’re looking at the past, and the past, in DPH data-speak, is “less reliable.” 

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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1 Comment

  1. is the reason for the high death rate among Asians due to mostly age? Or is it because of other factors such as health care resources?

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