Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Is a fourth surge coming? According to Dr. Michael Osterholm, it’s already here. Not “here” as in San Francisco, but around the world, with numbers rocketing in India, Brazil, much of Africa and Europe. And signs of a surge can be seen in the U.S., but in regional patches.

The Vaccine has been demonstrated protection against severe Covid. A new study shows something else works.

Check this out, as mass rapid testing may be on the horizon in the U.S. To help control the virus, the UK recently introduced a regime of mass twice-weekly rapid testing and it’s a mess.

The CDC has prolonged its study of blood clots and the J&J vaccine. Oxford University in England says Covid presents more of a risk of clotting than the vaccine and Dr. Jeremy Faust has a long thread comparing the risk with the vaccine to the background risk.

On the non-Covid front, a lot happening in the Mission yesterday with protests against killer-cops, a daycare worker charged with child porn, the grand opening of the Mission’s largest fully affordable housing project, severe cutbacks in ESL at CCSF, and the arrest of another Recology executive tied to the Mohammed Nuru scandal.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

Note there are some discrepancies from the CDC data used for the chart and the data supplied from SFDPH. As of April 15, DPH reports 61 percent (465,271) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and 39 percent (302,256) are completely vaccinated.  On April 15, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 10,613. The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

  Covid-19 R Estimation  slightly lowered its estimate of the San Francisco and California R  Numbers to 1.03. The ensemble slightly raised its average estimate for San Francisco to  .81, while keeping its average estimate for California steady at .88

Between March 15 and April 13, DPH reported 68 new cases in the Mission for a rate of 11.4 new cases per 10,000 residents.  For the first time in memory, the Mission no longer has the highest raw case count. That dubious distinction belongs to the Marina, with 69 new cases for a rate of 27.2 cases per 10,000 residents. Treasure Island had only 1 new case, trailed closely by Glen Park which had 2.

For the week ending April 8, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City dropped to 33 or 3.8 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.

Income inequality doesn’t need Covid to kill. Especially in the U.S.

For the week ending April 12, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 4 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 36 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On April 12, Covid patients comprised 3.2 percent of all ICU patients and 1.4 percent of all Acute Care patients. 

The latest data from the Federal Health and Human Services department shows SFGH with 5 Covid patients last week and 82 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had 1 Covid patients and 43 percent ICU occupancy.

Between February 10 and April 11, the Mission’s average positivity rate was 1.43 percent. During that time Tenderloin had the highest positivity rate with 2.5 percent, while Marina, the City’s latest hotspot had 1.48 percent. Six neighborhoods, including Glen Park, had rates below .5 percent.

San Francisco learned alot from the HIV crisis. Is this why DPH insists on tracking sexual orientation data rather than socio-economic data? In March 634 heterosexuals tested positive for the virus, as did 12 Bi-sexuals and 2 “others” while 318 were unknown. In cumulative deaths, 84 identify has heterosexual, 1 Gay/Lesbian and 389 unknown. DPH says 3 declined to state which is odd as in earlier cumulative data presented, 7 declined to state. Did 4 decline to state from the grave? It’s “unknown.”

The 517 figure, recorded on April 9, is considered “unreliable” by DPH. It is the first, and only, death reported in April. Yesterday DPH reported 513 deaths, 17 of which were recorded in March. Today, there are still only 17 March deaths, despite 3 new deaths added to the cumulative totals. How does DPH account for this phenomenon? By once again adding 3 new deaths to March 1? Nobody’s perfect. Especially, it seems, the dead.

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Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been." He has maintained our Covid tracker through most of the pandemic, taking some breaks with his search for the Mission's best fried-chicken sandwich and now its best noodles. When the Warriors make the playoffs, he writes up his take on the games.

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  1. Is there any explanation for the drop in cases from yesterday? Yesterday the reported total case count was 35,667 and today it now says 35,653. I mean, I like the trend, but it’s curious.

  2. Today’s SFDPH update is suspect. The “Total Cases Reported” of 35,653 is 14 LESS than yesterday’s number of 35,667. There are some adjustments to case numbers reported earlier, but that does not account for all of the decrease in total cases from yesterday. More importantly, yesterday’s update shows 20 cases for 4/12 and this does not appear in today’s update. Further, the daily updates almost always have cases reported for 3 days prior. I.e., for today, case numbers would normally be reported for 4/13. It appears the case numbers after 4/11 got cut off in today’s update.

    A decrease in total cases from previous day has occurred before. The last time was on 3/16 and that was due entirely to adjustment of case numbers reported earlier, and there was no cut off of case numbers for the most recent 2 days as in today’s update. Note the COVID-19 R Estimation website uses the change in daily total case number in their calculation, and this negative change can throw that calculation off.

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