Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

San Francisco has now officially surpassed 500 Covid-related deaths. It’s been a tough year.

And today some schools will open to in-person learning. Though a moment for rejoicing, especially with superintendent Vincent Matthews back for another year, as Joe reports, kids in classrooms won’t be without unusual challenges.

Vaccinations are not without their challenges either. Some breakthrough infections have been reported, but the number is few and the vaccine efficacy in preventing serious illness and hospitalization continues to look very promising.

Another major challenge is vaccinating immigrant workers, often the most essential(ly) screwed. An Identification requirement only makes matters worse.

Meet David Liu who sells fruit and enjoys social interaction.

Meet Max Johnson, who enjoys the sunlight on Bartlett between 21st and 22nd.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

Note there are some discrepancies from the CDC data used for the chart and the data supplied from SFDPH. As of April 11, DPH reports 57 percent (438,013) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, and 36 percent (273,185) had received two.  On April 8, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 12,255. The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

The virus appears to be anxious for schools and expanded business reopenings (or the various variants are showing up).   Covid-19 R Estimation  has raised its estimate of the San Francisco R  Number to 1.19, a substantial jump over last week. According to this model, the R Number is up all over the State raising its  California estimate to 1.08. The ensemble for San Francisco displays a range from .53 to 1.14 for an  average estimate of  .8, while estimates for the state range from .76 to 1.03 for an average of .84

DPH continues to have difficulties with its monthly new case numbers.  The cumulative total for the Mission stands at 4051 positive tests, or 679 cases per 10,000 residents. The neighborhood most affected is the area bounded by 17th and Market, Valencia and South Van Ness with 952 cases per 10,000 residents.

Despite the rising R Number, new case numbers remain flat. For the week ending April 4, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 34 or 3.9 new cases per day per 100,000 residents.

Since the beginning of March, average new case numbers have been going down for all groups except Whites.

DPH is back to reporting hospitalizations and the reports are pretty good, especially the low number of ICU patients. Because DPH does not report hospitalization demographics, it’s difficult to judge impact of the vaccine. Reflecting last week’s rise, for the week ending April 8, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients rose 22 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 36 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On April 8, Covid patients comprised 1 percent of all ICU and 1.5 percent of all Acute Care patients. 

The latest data from the Federal Health and Human Services department shows SFGH with 8 Covid patients and 83 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had 2 Covid patients and 51 percent ICU occupancy.

Latinx residents continue to have the highest positivty rates in the City. However, in March, Latinx positivity rates dropped from to 2.1 percent from a December high of 12 percent.

Around the country, more women then men are getting vaccinated though generally more men are getting infected and dying as a result of the virus. In San Francisco, 52.4 percent of the cases and 59 percent of the deaths have been men. In March, the percentage of male cases rose to 54 percent.

Having had the most cases in the City, it should not be a surprise that the Mission has had the most deaths. Currently DPH reports the Mission with 49 Covid-related deaths, Excelsior with 48, Bayview Hunters Point with 37, Sunset/Parkside 36, Tenderloin 28, Pacific Heights 28, and Western Addition 21. Twenty-two neighborhoods have recorded 10 or fewer deaths, while Presidio, Seacliff and Mission Bay have 0.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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  1. If case numbers and positivity rates are roughly stable, why is the R Number going up dramatically?

    1. I believe it is because due to the smaller number of infections, any increase has a significantly bigger impact on the R-value. It is sort of like the difference between jumping from 10 to 15 (50% increase) vs jumping from 50 to 55 (10% increase). Still 5 more cases in both situations, but the very different statistical impacts.

      1. What Cooper said. Also the error bars are much greater when there are fewer/more stable infections – the R value falls somewhere between 0.99 and 1.39 (95% confidence interval).

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