Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Are we beginning to see a local variant surge? New case counts and positivity rates are inching up, though no new changes in the positivity rate. The new death toll figure does not signal anything new on the horizon.

Writing in The Atlantic, Zeynep Tufekci presents one of the more intelligent, and certainly more balanced, reports on what is now considered the fourth surge, and what we might expect.

Dr. Michael Osterholm, in his most recent podcast, presents a much darker view, based on data from Europe, and, echoing Yogi Berra, calls it “deja vu all over again”.

Never a dull moment at the Board of Education.

The Mission Food Hub took a moment to celebrate the birthday of Cesar Chavez and kick off a food drive to aid farmworkers in the Central Valley.

RIP Cameron Kim, who transformed his life through art.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

 

DPH reports California “is implementing a new version of the California Immunization Registry (CAIR2). As a result, data may fluctuate throughout the month as the State continues to improve the dataset.” As of March 31, 46 percent (350,678) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, 25 percent (194,686) had received two.  On March 31, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 9,508.  The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

The R Number today looks a lot like yesterday. Covid-19 R Estimation  has kept its estimate for San Francisco’s R Number at .97 while the ensemble average estimate of  .77.  Estimates for California’s R Number also show no substantial change, ranging from .57 to .94 for an  average of .80.

Between February 28 and March 29,  DPH added 93 new cases to the Mission or a rate of 15.6 new cases per 10,000 residents. During that time, Bernal Heights had 28 new cases, Noe Valley 26, Hayes Valley 25, Castro 20, Potrero Hill 17, Mission Bay 17 and Glen Park added 2 new cases.   

For the week ending March 234, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City had  crept up again to 35 or 3.8 new cases per day per 100,000 residents. Early indications are that in the short run new case numbers will continue to climb.

Continuing recent trends, most new cases in San Francisco (35 percent) are coming from the White community. Latinx comprise about 25 percent, Asians 19.3 percent, Blacks 7.6 percent and Multi-racials 2.8 percent. DPH will provide complete figures for the month of March in a couple days.

Covid confirmed and suspected hospitalizations have reached an all-time low but not as low as shown above. According to DPH, as of March 30, there were 5 Covid patients in ICU and 17 in Acute Care. There seems to be a problem with the DPH dataset we’ve been using. For the week ending March 30, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 21 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 33 percent and Acute Care availability was 24 percent. On March 30, Covid patients made up 1.75 percent of available ICU beds  and 1.18 percent of Acute Care beds. Surge capacity in ICU is reported to be 100 percent and 93 percent in Acute Care. 

According to most recent data from the Federal Department of Health and Human Services, last week SFGH had 9 Covid patients and 84 percent ICU occupancy.  Across the Mission CPMC had 3 Covid patients and 46 percent ICU occupancy.

Between January 26 and March 29, Mission residents tested 24,580 times for a testing rate of 412.7 (per 1000 residents) recording 525 positives for a positivity rate of 2.14 percent.


The B117 variant surge has yet to be picked up in Californnia, which has just reported another new record low positivity rate!

DPH has  a new Alternative Shelter Program for those exiting one of the City’s temporary Shelter-in-Place hotels. The City’s goal is to ensure no individual in a SIP hotel as of November 15, 2020 who participates in the rehousing program exits the temporary pandemic shelter system onto the street. For more on this program and some of the metrics involved, see https://data.sfgov.org/stories/s/COVID-19-Alternative-Housing-Rehousing-SIP-Hotel-G/6ugi-a5jp/.

Remember, when discussing Covid-related death tolls, we are not talking “real time.” There is a substantial delay between when a death happens and when it is recorded, then an additional delay to when that death is reported. The 471 number was first recorded on March 15. So far in the month of March, 6 deaths have been recorded.  According to DPH, those SF residents over 60 still make up 90 percent of the City’s Covid-related deaths.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *