Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.
After a year of Covid, San Francisco will recover. It won’t be the same. Or will it?
The CDC has finally released guidelines for the vaccinated.
Getting a vaccination is difficult for most of us. But for those who pick, pack and prepare our food, the vaccination challenge is much harder.
With the U.S. and the U.K. leading the way, most Covid deaths have occurred in countries where the majority of adults are overweight.
While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
Waiting for The Vaccination? Join the club. As of March 7, over 25 percent (194,214) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, while over 12 percent (92,683) had received two.Ā On March 6, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day fell to 6018.6. Ā For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.
San Francisco’s Ā R Number has been stable, and relatively very low. Ā Covid-19 R Estimation andĀ the ensemble continue to estimate the San Francico R NumberĀ around .7.Ā For California there has been an unwelcome increase with estimates ranging from .47 to .85 for an average of .78.Ā And note Marin.Ā
Cases have been falling throughout the City, though in a predictable pattern. Between February 4 and March 2,Ā DPH added 191 new cases to the Mission or 32 new cases per 10,000 residents. Portola had a rate of 54.3, Tenderloin 53.4, Bayview Hunters Point 44, Chinatown 23, Marina 22.9, Western Addition 20.3, Outer Richmond 15.3, Sunset/Parkside 12.1, Castro 11.7, Nob Hill 11.6, and Inner Sunset 9.6 new cases per 10,000 residents. Glen Park had 5 new cases, and Seacliff had 1.
For the week ending February 28, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City was 52, or 6 new cases per day per 100,000 residents which brings the City out of the DPH red zone for the first time since October 30.
Based on the group’s population, in Februrary, Latinx had a new case rate of 57.5 (down from 195 in January), Blacks had 40 (down from 100.4), Asians 22 (down from 54.3), Whites 17 (down from 49), and Multi-racials 12 (down from 51).
Hospitalizations continue their downward slide. Today’s figures include 0 transfers. For the week ending March 6, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 38 percent.Ā Ā During that week,Ā the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 33 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On March 6, Covid patients occupied less than 5 percent of ICU beds and 2.5 percent of Acute Care beds. DPH continues to report 100 percent of required PPE on hand.
Most recent numbers from the Federal Health and Human Services Department show SFGH with 10 Covid patients and 83 percent ICU occupancy.Ā Across the Mission, CPMC also has 10 Covid patients and 41 percent ICU occupancy.Ā Ā
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The 2.3 percent positivity rate is the lowest the state has seen since the pandemic began.Ā
In February, unhoused residents tested positive 59 times (2.5 percent of tests administered) and had 1 new death.
Between January 10 and February 26, DPH recorded 0 new nursing home deaths. Local nursing homes make 25 percent (a total of 107) of all Covid-related deaths in the City. Since vaccinations began, there has been an 82 percent decrease in nursing home deaths nationally.Ā
Comparing the reopening of indoor dining and other activities at 25% from last fall and now. San Francisco re-opened on September 30 when the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases was 47. Over the next 5 days, the rolling average dropped from 47 to 35. From October 5 to October 21, the rolling average was mostly level between 30 and 32 after an early dip to 27. On October 22, the number went to 34 and then back up to 47 over the next 5 days. On October 30, San Francisco announced pause in further reopening to 50% that had been scheduled for November 3. An increase in the rolling average at 2 to 3 weeks after reopening could be expected, but it was the rapid increase that actually occurred that led to the pause in reopening.
The rolling average was 47 on March 1 (projecting ahead of official numbers) and is dropping at a rate very similar to the drop from 47 on September 30. The current reopening started on March 3 when the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases was 41 so the reopening this time started at a lower level of cases than last fall. If case factors now are exactly the same as in last fall, the rolling average will level off around 30 and an increase in the rolling average can be expected around 2 to 3 weeks after the March 3 reopening date. But two factors are new ā variants that are more infectious and vaccinations. By comparing the change in rolling average starting March 3 to the change in rolling average that started September 30, we can see whether variants or vaccinations have more effect.