Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Note: No Covid Tracker on Sunday.

Although not showing up yet in San Francisco or the state yet, the widely expected “4th wave” based on the B117 variant is gaining strength around the country. Here is a thread from former CDC director Tom Frieden assessing the situation and the need for vaccine equity.

UCSF’s Dr. Monica Gandhi, a reliable optimist, explains why real world data is showing that the vaccines not only protect against severe illness but block transmission. It’s all about immunioglobulins and antibodies.

There’s no better walking city than San Francisco. In a fabulous essay I wish I had written, Aife Murray tells us why.

And then, there’s the Planning Commission, who despite logic, public opposition and their own misgivings, voted to bring in The Creamery Cafe. Just what we needed.

If you can break away from Dr. Gandhi’s tweets on immunoglobulins, check out Todd Berman’s sketches from Paseo Artistico and meet Dolores Park’s DJ Cheese who knows you can’t please all the people all the time.

And for those who may have missed it, Joe dug into a whole lot of DPW emails and discovered (are you sitting down?), DPW allowed Recology to rip us off for years.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

 

The California Immunization Registry data system continues to undercount vaccinations. As of March 26, over  43 percent (326,904) of San Francisco residents over 16 had received one dose, while  22 percent (170,218) had received two.  On March 26, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day was 9,120.6 .  The DPH goal is 10,000 shots a day. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

If you’re into uncertainty, you’ll love today’s R Number reports. Despite very low case rates, positivity rates and hospitalizations, note San Francisco’s  steep rise on the graph. Always tending toward the high side of things, Covid-19 R Estimation puts the San Francisco R Number at a disturbing .97 (in a range from .78 to 1.15). Meanwhile  the ensemble (eight models) estimate San Francisco’s R Number falls in a range from .63 to 1.02 with an average of  .78.  Most models agree that California’s R Number remains around .8 (except for one which estimates it at .43). What can I say other than R Number estimation is not an exact science.

If you think you’re living in the City’s Covid central, here are some numbers to to back you up. Between February 23 and March 24,  DPH added 112 new cases to the Mission or a rate of  18.8 new cases per 10,000 residents. The Citywide rate for that month was 12.25 new cases per 10,000 residents. Other than Tenderloin and Bayview Hunters Point (both with 78) and Sunset/Parkside (61) no other neighborhood had more than 47 new cases. Expect pushback from folks in Bayview Hunters Point which now has a cumulative rate of 1,000.96 cases per 10,000 residents, while the Mission’s cumulative rate is 672.9 cases per 10,000 residents.

For the week ending March 19, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the City remained at  29 or 3.3 new cases per day per 100,000 residents

As of March 26, Asians have received 32 percent of the total vaccine doses delivered, Whites 30.4 percent, Latinx 11.3 percent, Mult-racials 9.6 percent and Blacks 3.4 percent. Native Americans and Pacific Islanders have received approximately .5 percent of all doses delivered. Of the doses administered by SFDPH, Asians have received 38.8 percent, Latinx 25.3 percent, Multi-racials, 7.3 percent and Blacks 7.2 percent. Pacific Islanders and Native Americans have received less than ,5 percent of the doses administered by SFDPH. 

On Februray 1, SF hospitals had 43 ICU patients; on March 1, there were 20  and today there are 5.  No transfers again. For the week ending March 25, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 21 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 33 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On March 25, Covid patients occupied 1.75 percent of available ICU beds and 2.2 percent of Acute Care beds. DPH says capacity for a potential surge is at 100 percent in ICU and 94 percent in Acute Care.

According to most recent data from the Federal Department of Health and Human Services, last week SFGH had 5 Covid patients and 73 percent ICU occupancy.  Across the Mission CPMC had 6 Covid patients and 76 percent ICU occupancy.

Since December Latinx positivity rates have fallen more than 80 percent while the testing rate for Latinx residents (per 1,000 residents) has dropped about 60 percent

Following a trend which became evident towards the end of Februrary, as of March 24, Whites have the highest percentage of the month’s new cases with 34 percent, while Latinx had 25 percent, Asians 9 percent, Blacks 7 percent and Mult-racials 3 percent, Pacific Islanders 2 percent and Native Americans 0 new cases.

Based on 463 deaths, San Francisco’s case fatality rate (CFR) of 1.3 percent. With “true infections” (all infections not only those reported), the infection fatality rate (IFR) would be approximately .44 percent.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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4 Comments

  1. The R number for San Francisco is (finally!) reflecting the plateau in new cases. With a very slight decline in new cases this week, 0.97 seems like an accurate number.

    A little lower would be great, but so long as it’s sitting below 1.0, it’s good news.

  2. RE: R number uncertainty. Some of the variation in R number estimates could depend on the data used for the calculation. Some are based on daily case numbers. The problem is deriving the number cases in a day from the day-to-day increase in total case number to date can be misleading because the total case number to date includes adjustment of cases from weeks and months ago due to corrected records. For example, on March 16, the total case number to date was 34573 which is 10 less than the number from March 15. This was caused by adjustment of past cases downwards by 47. This caused the 7-day average of cases reported per day to drop to 23. Similarly, on March 25, there was an adjustment of past cases upwards by 13. This caused the 7-day average of cases reported per day to increase to 38. In comparison, the case numbers reported by the SFDPH website are associated with the date of the test and not the date of the report. The 7-day average of cases by date of the test has been fairly level in the past 2 weeks between 29 and 32. So the R number calculation can be off if it is based the increase in the total cases reported to date.
    The winter surge last year started on 10/21, or 3 weeks after reopening indoor dining to 25%. From 10/21 to 10/28, the 7 day average rose from 32 to 51 or about 60% over 1 week. Currently, we are well into the 3rd week after reopening indoor dining to 25% on 3/3. There is a lag is the data for cases based on the date of the test. Up to 3/22, the 7 day average has been around 29 to 31. The 7-day average numbers to be reported in the next week will be of greater interest. The hope is that the vaccinations to date, although not at herd immunity level yet, will mitigate the variants and keep the number of cases level as indoor dining and other indoor businesses open to 50%.

  3. “And then, there’s the Planning Commission, who despite logic, public opposition and their own misgivings, voted to bring in The Creamery Cafe. Just what we needed.”

    Why is this such a bad news? Nativists groups like Calle 24 have been harassing new businesses for years. Why isn’t ML looking into the aggressive tactics they have been using to bully small businesses that they deem not to “fit the mission culture”.

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