Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Hospitalizations have taken a welcome dive as new case numbers and positivity rates continue dropping. It’s a scenario playing out all over the country despite differences in weather, public policy and levels of individual compliance.

If those who test positive are unable financially to isolate, testing does little good. The City’s fund for support rests on private generosity which has been less than overflowing. Yesterday local docs and activists urged the City to permanently fund the Right to Recover

Nor does it help when people face the threat of losing their homes despite pandemic related moratoriums on eviction.

Although the debate on school reopenings have been reported among teachers and public health officials, parents are also split on the plan.

Will the City defund the police? The Police Commission has roundly rejected a budget proposal from the SFPD that includes a number of cuts, but the Mayor and Supes will have the final say.

Looking for a summary on the damage done to public health by Dark Ages Donald? Check out this recent report in The Lancet.

While waiting for The Vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

So far 26 percent of all vaccinations received by San Franciscans have been given to 65-74 year olds.  As of February 17, 17 percent (130,148) of San Francisco residents over 18 have received one dose, while over  5 percent (39,100) have received two. On February 17, 3483 shots were delivered to San Franciso residents, with a seven day rolling average of shots per day of 3934.9.   For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Most models indicate Covid transmission is decreasing in San Francisco. Covid-19 R Estimation has lowered its estimate to .72, the lowest it’s been at any time during the pandemic, while the ensemble estimates it at .8.   Estimates for California’s R Number range from .52 to .72 with a very sunny average of .63.

Between January 16 and February 14,  new positive tests among Mission residents fell to 327 for a cumulative total of 3825cases, or 64.1 positive tests per 1000 residents

For the week ending February 10, the seven-day average of daily new cases in the City dropped to 113, or 13 new cases per day per 100,000 residents

Thus far in February Latinx residents have had 529 positive tests, while Asians have had 417, Whites 393, Blacks 116 and Muti-racials 30. This is a big drop from January when the monthly numbers were Latinx 2566, Asians 1579, Whites 1733, Blacks 437 and Multi-racials 190.

Today’s numbers include no transfers in ICU or Acute Care. For the week ending February 16, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 20 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 31 percent and Acute Care availability was 25 percent. On February 16, Covid patients comprised 12 percent of those in ICU and 5 percent of those in Acute Care and DPH reports ICU surge capacity at 100 percent  and Acute Care at 96 percent .

 

 For the first two weeks in February, Latinx residents had a 6.75 percent positivity rate, Blacks 2.82 percent, Asians 2.57 percent, Multi-racials 1.56 percent and Whites 1.55 percent.  Positivity rates for the month of January were Latinx 11.3 percent, Blacks 4.4 percent, Multi-racials 4.3 percent, Asians 3.6 percent  and Whites 2.8 percent. The Citywide average in January was 4 percent.

 

With the recent surge behind us, contact tracing rates have predictably improved though we still have no information on what the results of the program have been. Despite statewide mandate for employers to inform their workers and local authorities when a workplace outbreak takes place, we have not heard a word about Covid cases in workplaces around town. Either no one has contracted the disease at work, or the authorities don’t know about it, or don’t report it. What DPH does report is for the two-week period ending February 12, 82 percent of those who tested positive were interviewed and 80 percent of their named contacts were reached.

Cumulative Covid Deaths in San Francisco

While we revise our Covid deaths graph, here’s the DPH chart taken from their website: https://data.sfgov.org/stories/s/dak2-gvuj.

San Francisco currently has a rate of 42.8 Covid related deaths per 100,000 citizens. In comparison, Sacramento has 91.5, San Diego has 92.1, Los Angeles has 190.3, Fresno has 137.1, Portland 64.2, Seattle 61.4, Las Vegas 172.6, Denver 108.6, Dallas 124.2, St. Louis 112.8, Chicago 176, Cleveland 131.4, Detroit 232, Philadelphia 194.5, Washington D.C. 144.9, Manhattan 231.8 and Brooklyn 339.3

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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2 Comments

  1. Like most people I use this data to get a sense of how much COVID is floating around in the general population of SF. This gives me a rough idea of how dangerous my everyday activities are. But we have a big influx of commuters in & out of SF each day. If COVID testing is done only on residents, aren’t the numbers substantially off?

  2. Please comment on how the sharp decline in the total number of tests, and the fact that the majority of testing is done in white neighborhoods with low positivity rates, affects the overall validity of the San Francisco data. I would like to know how many tests per capita, and whether testing is concentrated in low-income, high infection neighborhoods in those other cities you mention. Until we have that information, comparisons aren’t really accurate or useful.

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