Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

With cases and hospitalizations on a slow descent, restaurant mogul and local wino Gavin Newsom re-opened restaurants (and bars disguised as restaurants) for outdoor dining along with other assorted small businesses. Get it while you can. Many epidemiologists such as Dr. Michael Osterholm predict the next (big) surge in March.

If, and when, that surge arrives, it will most likely be fueled by the British variant. Will that variant and the one currently surging in South Africa resist The Vaccine? Here’s a tweetorial on the subject with the latest data.

Will the Mission’s commercial corridors survive the pandemic? They might if the right businesses move in.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

As of January 24, DPH reports 6 percent (48,938) of San Francisco residents over 18 had received one dose, and 1 percent (10,345) had received two. The great majority of people surveyed at the 24th BART station, many at high risk of infection, said they are now ready for The Vaccine. But are they eligible; where can they get it? It appears Salesforce sold some software to the state to run a statewide website for vaccine information and coordination. It won’t be fully operational until Februrary, but better late than never.  

Though below 1, SF has one of the higher R Numbers in the state. Covid-19 R Estimation puts the San Francisco R number at .91 while the ensemble has it at .86. Estimates for California’s R Number range between .74 and .94 for an average of .83.

The recent drop in new cases can be seen in the Mission. Between December 23 and January 21, DPH reports 690 new cases among Mission residents for a cumulative total of 3555 or 56.9 cases per 1000 residents. You will notice SF has a much better case rate than surrounding counties. This may reflect  restaurant workers, construction workers, housecleaners etc. coming to the City for work. If infected on the job, their numbers would be added to their place of residence.

For the week ending January 18, the seven-day average of daily new cases dropped to 230, or 26.4 average new cases per day per 100,000 residents

As of January 23, Latinx residents had a case rate of 967 per 10,000 residents. Pacific Islanders had 742, Native Americans 646, Blacks 379, Multi-racial 188, Whites 179, and Asians 174 cases per 10,000 residents.  The Citywide rate was 348 per 10,000 residents.

Today’s numbers include 1 ICU transfer, and 4 transfers in Acute Care. For the week ending January 24, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell  23 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 26 percent and for Acute Care beds 25 percent. On January 24, DPH reports  76 ICU beds and 438 Acute Care beds available.  DPH does not report if available beds are staffed, but continues to assert 100 percent of required PPE on hand. 

Newsom’s decision to re-open must be based on projections, which show substantial easing over the next month. Current data from the most recent federal reporting still indicates strain in ICU availability.  According to the Feds, as of January 24, SFGH shows O ICU beds available and of the 10 hospitals reporting, 51 ICU beds are available. San Francisco’s ICU number is projected to decline from 54 ICU patients to 40 over the next month. Note that during the summer surge, the highest  number of San Francisco ICU patients was 38.

   

Through Sunday, 6906 tests have been collected at the 24th Street BART station. The Latinx positivity rate was 11.69 percent, non-Latinx 5.80 percent and total positivity rate 10.08 percent.

 

Per 10,000 residents, those over the age of 80 had a case rate of 288, 20-24 had 568, 40-49 490, 30-39 374, 50-59 325, 60-69 243 and 70-79 203.

San Francisco has a death rate of 33.7 deaths per 100,000 residents. Sacramento has 76.6, Los Angeles 151.1, Seattle 56.4, Austin 56.7, Atlanta 89, Manhattan 215.1, Brooklyn 316.4 and Boston 193.2

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Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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2 Comments

  1. Thank you for your timely and concise reporting. It is very helpful.
    One thing I would like to see in all the reporting on Mission local is the location of the various items shown in the photographs accompanying the articles (such as the bears above).
    Michael

  2. To repeat an important point made in this article:
    “You will notice SF has a much better case rate than surrounding counties. This may reflect restaurant workers, construction workers, housecleaners etc. coming to the City for work. If infected on the job, their numbers would be added to their place of residence.”
    Most observers, as well as our City fathers and mothers, ignore this. Instead, they brag about SF’s relatively low numbers. Public relations reigns, not science.

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