Covid Tracker: 17,068 cases, 164 deaths

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Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Not everyone is pleased with California’s (and San Francisco’s) new shelter-in-place lite orders. Restaurant owners in L.A. brought a lawsuit questioning if   “the science” links outdoor dining/drinking to virus spread. Here’s a very recent metastudy looking into the differences between indoor and outdoor transmission of the virus. Take a look. The study found the odds of indoor transmission significantly higher than outdoor, however, factors such as close contact, duration and masking made it inconclusive regarding specific activities such as outdoor dining/drinking.

Turning to the City’s pandemic of corruption, Joe shows how in monopoly capitalism, the “regulator” becomes the enabler. And San Francisco gets trashed.

Indoor, outdoor, delivery or pickup, we could all use some comfort food these days. Maria recently visted a neighborhood favorite.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

Since Covid first checked in, the Mission has been the virus’ favorite hangout in the City. Over the last month our hood has become the pandemic’s raging epicenter. From November 4 thorugh December 5, the Mission logged 456 new cases, for a total of 2274 or 38 cases per 1000 residents. The only other neighborhood with more than 300 cases during that time was  Bayview-Hunters Point with 352.

The model we use estimates the San Francisco R number rose back over 1.4. The ensemble estimates between 1.1 and 1.44. The estimates for California range between .86 (doubtful)  and 1.47, for an average of 1.2.

The post-Thanksgiving surge is making its appearance. For the week ending November 29, the seven-day average number of Citywide daily cases was 134 or 15.4 cases per 100,000 residents. Note: The Chron is reporting over 316 positive cases reported Monday. I don’t where they got that number, but remember because of delays in analyzing and reporting test results, the day on which they get reported to DPH doesn’t mean much until they get sorted out as to when the tests were taken. That’s why ML has followed the seven-day rolling average which provides a sense of trend. Whatever the number, we can see the trend is not good.

DPH reports the Latinx total number of cases through November 30 to be 2075, or 588 cases per 10,000 residents. White San Franciscans have the next highest total number, 1659, or 92 cases per 10,000 residents.

On December 5, the total number of Covid patients in SF hospitals reached 117. For the week ending December 5, the weekly rate of change in Covid positive patients rose  42 percent. During that week DPH reports the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 33 percent and for Acute Care beds 26 percent.  DPH continues to report 100 percent of required PPE on hand.

Despite over 2000 less daily average tests reported than last week, the post-Thanksgiving surge has begun to show up in the Citywide positive test results. And check out below to what’s happening Statewide.

Stop the presses! DPH has reported (minimal) contact tracing figures. And the biggest surprise is that for the first time in memory, DPH actually reports figures well below 80 percent. For the two weeks ending November 27, tracers interviewed 71 percent of positives, and notified 70 percent of their contacts.  Looking for evidence of local outdoor dining/drinking transmission? Good luck.

With 164 deaths, San Francisco has 18.8 deaths per 100,000 residents. In comparison, San Diego has 31.9, Sacramento has 40.7, Los Angeles 78.1, Santa Fe 27.5, Denver 78.7, Minneapolis 94.7, Chicago 129.1, Cleveland 62.3, Tampa Bay 70 and Miami 144.9 deaths per 100,000 residents.