Artificial Intelligence

Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Yesterday’s UCSF Grand Rounds took place in the worst of times, with the best of times not far off. Or so said Dr. Bob Wachter. The panel discussed the current situation, the issue of schools and vaccine distribution.

It’s the worst of times which was on the mind of Governor Newsom when he announced, to no one’s surprise, new restrictions on social and business activities to be coming soon. He’s concerned, as we all should be, about hospital capacity, especially ICU availability.

In case you forgot, this is San Francisco, so please be careful when crossing the street.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

As of December 1, the Mission had a cumulative total of 2174 positive cases, or 36.4 cases per 1000 residents. The hardest hit area remains the area bounded by 17th, 22nd, Valencia and South Van Ness with 415 cases, or 64.8 cases per 1000 residents. Close behind is the area bounded by Market, 17th, Valencia and South Van Ness with 339 cases, or approximately 56.4 cases per 1000 residents.

Uncertainty plays a big role in estimating the R number. Covid-19 R estimation for California  estimates San Francisco’s R number to range from 1.19 to 1.42, for an average of 1.3.  The ensemble of models estimates the number to range from .98 to 1.44 for an average of  1.2.

For the week ending November 26, the seven-day average number of Citywide daily cases dropped to 128 or 14.7 cases per 100,000 residents. Does this represent a trend or a delay in reporting due to the Thanksgiving holiday?

The weekly rate of change in Covid positive patients for the week ending December 2 slowed a bit, with a gain of  34 percent. During that week DPH reports the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 34 percent and for Acute Care beds 32 percent. DPH won’t say whether those available beds are “staffed” but it does continue to report SF hospitals have 100 percent of required PPE on hand.

As noted previously, Covid numbers tend to be less than absolute markers. For example, positivity rate figures have been very difficult to parse over the past week as there appear to be differences between the SFGov website and the underlying DPH database. There is also a difference, as to what DPH considers “more reliable” and what is considered “less reliable.” To muddy matters a bit more, the State currently reports the 14 day average Citywide positivity rate to be 3.3 percent (based on an average of 3588 tests) for the two weeks ending December 2.

California’s 14 day positivity rate reached 7 percent for the first time since August 2.

The age group between 18 and 30 account for 27 percent of the cases and 2 percent of the deaths. DPH does not report demographic data on hospitalizations.

Of San Francisco’s 162 deaths (first reached on November 23), 65 percent were men, 34 percent were women, and 1 percent were “unknown.”

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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