Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.
The Vaccine did not come this morning. But Pfizer had some encouraging early results in their Phase 3 trials.
Beyond coherent public messaging, it’s hard to know what Biden can do now or in his early days as President. PR may not be enough as the election revealed that the counties currently being the hardest hit by the virus voted overwhemingly for the Dark Ages.
Not here in San Francisco, where Joe looks ahead after citizens displayed an admirable disdain for Big Money Propaganda.
Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come.
There may have been fewer cases reported Citywide last month, but it was not a very good month for the Mission where 199 positive cases were reported between October 7 and November 5. As usual, only Bayview Hunters Point had more than 100 reported cases (149), while Excelsior (85), Outer Mission (60), Tenderloing (59) were the only neighborhoods in the City with more than 50 cases.
The model we use estimates the effective R number in San Francisco at an anxiety-producing 1.35. Other models have lower estimates but still higher than 1. An ensmble of models estimates the California number to be 1.12.
After spending a month with lower case numbers, San Francisco is now back on “high alert”. For the week ending November 1, the Citywide seven-day average number of daily cases remained 53 or 6.1 cases per 100,000.
The Citywide positivity rate has been holding more or less steady over the past few days despite a record number of tests, rising case numbers and a relatively high R number.
California’s positivity rate has been rising slowly but steadily.
The number of confirmed and suspected Covid patients has been fairly steady, though the number of confirmed patients rose 14 percent over the past week. On November 7, 35 percent of ICU beds and 27 percent of Acute Care beds were free. The DPH goal is to keep at least 10 percent available for a potential surge.
Much of what we can expect to hear from the Biden task force are preventative measures that we as individuals can take, such as practicing safe six, masksing and hand-washing. Other government initiatives, such as aggressive contact tracing remain off in the hazy future. To date, the SF contact tracing program reports continues to say they’ve reached approximately 85 percent of positive cases and reported contacts. We still don’t know what this means concretely. How long does it take to reach people? How many contacts do positive cases report? What response do people give once they are reached?
With 151 deaths, the Covid death rate in San Francisco is approximately 17.4 deaths per 100,000 residents. Sacramento has an approximate rate of 33.6, Los Angeles 71, San Diego 27.5, Phoenix 87.2, Topeka 49.9 Des Moines 62.6, Fargo 73.2, Sioux Falls 66.9, Memphis 62.8, Louisville 51, and Charleston 72 deaths per 100,000 residents.
The Pfizer “vaccine” is an RNA product. Proceed with caution.
What does the photo up top have to do with this topic?