Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Stop the presses. A San Francisco DA has charged a (former) cop with criminal manslaughter! For years we’ve been told it was impossible. The POA will soon announce the sky is falling.

UCSF in alliance with United Health tests Covid testing for the Black community.

Juan Carlos reports on the extraordinary Mozzeria Pizza transitioning from restaurant to food truck.

And Peter Khoury says because we think linearly, we underestimate the power of the virus’ exponential growth. Which is why it’s best to act more forcefully sooner rather than later.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

Between October 22 and November 20, the Mission logged 298 new positive Covid cases, bringing the total to 2008, or 33.7 cases per 1000 residents. Both Marina (101) and Sunset/Parkside (125) are also surging.

The model we use suggests the situation with the virus will continue to worsen. It currently estimates the San Francisco R number at about 1.32, which is at the low end of counties in California. The R number for the state, which just set a record number of cases,  is estimated at 1.48. Not a good sign with Thankgiving upon us.,

Locally we still appear to be in an exponential growth phase. For the week ending November 16, the seven-day average number of Citywide daily cases rose to 110 or 12.7 cases per 100,000 residents.

In recogntition of the racial and ethnic disparities in virus cases, fueled in part by overrepresentation in vulnerable workplaces, the CDC is expected to prioritize “essential workers” to access the first round of vaccines.

The surge in cases has begun showing up in SF hospitals. For the week ending November 22, the rate of change in Covid positive patients was 34 percent. During that week, DPH reports the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 31 percent and for Acute Care beds 23 percent.

If rural hospitals, under significant strain, begin getting overwhelmed, we will see transfers to SF hospitals as we saw last June and July.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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