If I were you Rob . . . Photo by Mark Rabine

Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Amidst all the bad Covid news, the UCSF Grand Rounds yesterday offered a generous ray of optimism. No, The Vaccine didn’t come this morning, but soon.

In response to the local surge, UCSF in alliance with Unidos en Salud will provide free testing popups prior to and after Thanksgiving. In the Mission, the site will be located at the 24th Street BART station.

Note: Because of the technical problems we’ve been experiencing, not all graphs will be interactive. We should be back up to normal by Monday.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

Between October 18 and November 16, the Mission logged 267 more positive Covid cases, bringing the total to 1959, or 32.8 cases per 1000 residents. In addition to the Mission, Bayview Hunters Point, Excelsior, Outer Mission and Tenderloin, other neighborhoods experiencing significant outbreaks over the past month include the Marina, Sunset/Parkside, Bernal Heights, and the Outer Richmond.

Except for an outlier, R number models suggest San Francisco will remain a virus hot spot over Thanksgiving. Reflecting inherent uncertainty, estimates for San Francisco’s R number range from .97 to 1.37. Estimates for California’s R number range from .83 to 1.6

Despite the sunny weather, case numbers remain gloomy. For the week ending November 12, the seven-day average number of daily cases rose to 105 or 12.1 cases per 100,000 residents. We haven’t seen numbers like this since July 27.

The positivity rate (number of positive results per 100 tests) surpassed 2 percent for the first time since September 17.

With positivity rates and case numbers rapidly climbing, expect more hospitalizations in the near future. Although the number of confirmed and suspected Covid patients dropped back below 50, for the week ending November 18, the rate of change in Covid positive patients was 7 percent. During that week, the seven-day average availability for ICU beds was 34 percent and for Acute Care beds 24 percent.

DPH attributes 60 percent of the City’s positive cases to residents aged 40 and under.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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