Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

NOTE: We have had some technical issues with one of the data viz graphs. We are working around and hope to have it fixed soon.

The Vaccine didn’t come this morning. Though another reason for hope did arrive.  Don’t start hugging and throwing away your masks just yet. There are still outstanding questions, including the logistics of getting the vaccine from lab to arm.

And let’s not forget the side effects.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come. 

If you think cases have quickly increased over the past month, you’re right. Between October 14 and November 13, the Mission reported an eye-popping 250 new cases. The area bounded by Harrison and Bryant, 23rd and Cesar Chavez led with 29. The next hardest-hit neighborhoods were Bayview Hunters Point (190) and Excelsior (125). Though cases are rising Citywide, no other neighborhood had more than 95.

Covid-19 R Estimation for California raised its San Francisco R number estimate to 1.49 though an ensemble of models lowered the estimation slightly to 1.1. Most models suggest the current surge will not abate soon.

On November 8, the Citywide seven-day average number of daily cases in the City was 91, or 10.4 cases per 100,000 residents.

A good sign is that we have yet to see the rise in cases result in a big hospitalization jump. In fact, for the week ending November 14, DPH reports the rate of change in positive Covid patients dropped 2 percent! Over that week, the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 35 percent and Acute Care beds 24 percent.

Only 40 percent of local cases have been traced to a known case. The others are considered “unknown” or “community contact” which means there’s little data on where the new cases come from. As the Wall Street Journal points out, this problem exists beyond San Francisco.

DPH attributes 18 deaths to Pacific Heights. Bayview Hunters Point has 14, Japantown 12 and Tenderloin 11. Most of the City’s neighborhoods, including the Mission, have less than 10. A number of neighborhoods, including Haight Ashbury, Hayes Valley and Mission Bay, report no deaths.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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