Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.
One of the favorite sayings of San Francisco’s DPH, and many others, is that they “follow the data.” But where does the data come from? If you only read one article today, make it Lydia’s story about UCSF’s Dr. Diane Havlir and the work she’s done to help guide the struggle to control the virus. San Francisco is extremely fortunate to have docs like Havlir working here at this time.
Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come.
On October 24, the total number of positive Covid cases in the Mission climbed to 1726, or 28.9 cases per 1000 residents. The area bounded by 17th, 22nd, Valencia and South Van Ness alone reports 354 cases, more than in the Castro, Noe Valley, Glen Park, or every neighborhood west of Twin Peaks.
For the week ending October 19, the Citywide average remained 32 or or 3.6 cases per 100,000 residents.
Though cases have plummeted over the past month, the City’s contact tracing operation continues to be a model of static consistency. For the two weeks ending October 16, 84 percent of positive cases, and 81 percent of named contacts were reached.
While the model we use has raised its estimate of the San Francisco R number over 1, the ensemble of other models keeps the R number at .94.
This graph represents a Citywide testing and positivity average. Though the most recent figures ML has obtained (see Lydia’s article) shows the positivity rate among Latinx population to be falling, it’s still about 6 times the rate in the rest of the population. How much data does the City need before it “follows”?
For the week ending October 25, the rate of Covid positive hospitalizations rose 5 percent. The seven-day average percentage of ICU and Acute Care beds remains stable, at 35 percent and 23 percent respectively.
DPH has taken to reporting death numbers on a weekly basis. A week ago, the number was still 140. The case fatality rate (CFR) in SF is about 1.1 percent. Globally, and nationally, the figure is about 2.6 percent and in California about 1.9 percent.
