"The Wishing Tree" on Fair Oaks.

Good morning Mission. And welcome to Virus Village, your daily data dump.

Cases continue to soar and deaths continue to rise as the R number increases. The relatively good news is the rate of weekly hospitalizations is falling.  More tests are now being performed in the Mission, because DPH is now targetting our most vulnerable residents. A good step if those tests are turned around quickly enough to stop other infections.

Before or after you check out the numbers, you might want to take a minute to remind yourself how we, as a nation, got into this mess. Vanity Fair has has a delightful piece about the White House Coronavirus Task Force led by Jared Kushner (world-renowned Epidemiologist, or Virologist, I can’t remember). They may rival the Keystone Kops when it comes to saving the country from a deadly virus, but hey, no one works harder, and succeeds better, at the art of political and economic corruption.

HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come. 

An additional 17 cases were added to the Mission, raising our total to 952. The case numbers, especially the number of positive cases per 10,000 residents, remain concentrated in the southern and southeastern neighborhoods of the City.

As of  July 25, the seven-day average of new cases is 99. This represents an average of 11.4 cases per 100,000 residents, a high-alert figure that has fallen in the past week from a peak of 14.3 recorded on July 19. It also corresponds to a weekly average of over 3,000 daily tests. Again, past numbers will rise as more old tests get analyzed and reported.

Because tests do not get reported until days after they are taken, the figure as of July 25, can be considered “more reliable” than later days.

With the R number sticking above 1.30, don’t expect much good news in the near future.  Other models suggest the number might be lower, but all agree the virus continues to work its way through the City.

Again, no new numbers on available beds. So the figures and graphs you see are still as of July 21. As of July 30, DPH reports 39 patients in ICU and 87 in Acute Care. DPH uses those numbers to estimate the weekly average change in Covid hospitallizations to be 12%, a relatively good number, especially after what we’ve seen in the past couple weeks.

A curious note from DPH regarding deaths:  “The deaths shown here are suspected to be associated with COVID-19 or listed as the cause of death.” (emphasis added) I can’t say what “suspected to be associated” means or how many deaths may fit that definition.

Only 4 percent of the cases are from people “experiencing homelessness” according to DPH. This is another category which is difficult to get a handle on as it does not include those who have been temporarily moved to SROs. DPH concedes who it regards as experiencing homelessness “may not meet homelessness definitions or verification standards according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) or adopted by the San Francisco Department of Homelessness and Supportive Housing.”

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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