From Bernal, May 2020. Photo by Colin Campbell

Good Morning Mission. Welcome to Virus Village, your daily data dump.

Positive Test Results.  The Department of Public Health is reporting 74 new cases over the past few days.

Some of the rise may be due to increased testing and reporting. Testing had fallen below the stated goal of 1800 per day.  The seven day average ending July 5 has jumped to well over that goal. DPH says “Recent data quality issues have been discovered with this citywide testing data. Upcoming corrections will increase these testing totals.

However the average number of positive cases through July 5 has increased to 6.5 percent putting this indicator back into the “high alert” red zone. The new 7-day average of positive cases is 54, up from 49 yesterday.

Deaths. No new deaths. The toll stands at 50.

Hospitalizations.  Four new San Francisco patients were added on July 7 raising the weekly increase to 21 percent and putting this indicator back in the red zone. The capacity for a potential surge remains at 100 percent.

R Number clarification. The R number represents the average number of cases infected by a given case over the course of that individual’s disease progression. When the R number is above 1, it means the virus is increasing. When the R number is below 1, it means the virus is fading. Yesterday, I reported the San Francisco R number for the most recent week was 1.29, which I said was an improvement. I did not mean it was an improvement from May, when the number in the City was approximately 1, but an improvement over the previous figure given, which was 1.35. Today’s figure, an estimate over the past seven days, is 1.3. I hope that’s clear. We hope to present visualizations of the R number soon.

HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come. 

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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1 Comment

  1. 74 sounds like a lot. And that the “new normal” is multiple times what it was.

    Sorry to not understand but what does, “The capacity for a potential surge remains at 100 percent.: mean?

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