Good morning Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily data dump.
“We now know that this is a coronavirus acting as a coronavirus, not like a pandemic influenza virus, but a corona pandemic virus, and in that regard, we now know that this is just on hot burn, and it’s not a hot burn that’s a slow burn. It’s a hot burn that’s burning fast, and I’ve used this analogy in recent days, and I believe it’s the only way I can describe what’s happened in this country, for many parts of the country, we are in the middle of a huge coronavirus forest fire. It is burning, and it’s burning hot, and not only is it burning hot, but the embers are getting cast-off into new areas where there’s lots of human wood waiting to be infected, or in this case, set on fire, and we have to understand that we are now in a very different phase of what’s happening with this virus and our population in the United States, . . . but that we’re in a period where it’s not one local area.”
Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP). You can learn more from Osterholm on his podcasts or in our piece looking at the science on masks.
HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come.
The seven day average of new cases per day per 100,000 residents for the week ending July 12 has jumped to 9.0, definitely in the high alert red zone. You can see why Dr. Grant Colfax, director of SF Department of Public Health is worried. He’s not the only one.
The rate of weekly change in positive Covid hospitalizations has risen 36 percent for the week ending July 14, underlining Colfax’ warning that if this keeps up, SF hospitals could be overwhelmed by October. As of July 14, four new SF patients entered ICU (2 transfers were discharged), along with 6 new patients in Acute Care, raising the total (with transfers) to 99. Although hospitals are prepared for a surge, it is unlikely they are prepared for the kind of surge Colfax outlined.
San Francisco recorded its first new death in almost a month. No one has an explanation for the low death toll, but having the space and time available to treat patients at our hospitals, rather than chaos and panic we’ve seen in other areas, obviously contributes in a major way.
New cases in the Mission are also on the rise. Yesterday 23 new cases were added bringing the total to 722.
Testing in San Francisco continues to increase which is a good thing. But as tests have risen, contact tracing has diminished. While testing was low, the tracing figures were approximately 85 percent. Over the past two weeks, only 76 percent of cases and 80 percent of named contacts have been reached. Tracing is now considered to be in the orange zone (moderate alert).