A row of Victorian-style homes on Capp Street between 22nd and 23rd Streets.

Despite some anecdotal accounts that San Francisco’s real estate market has cooled slightly due to “buyer’s fatigue,” a look at the numbers tells a more straightforward story. Based on data provided by Redfin.com, most signs indicate that for much of San Francisco’s housing market, including the Mission, things are unambiguously white hot.

Looking at the housing sale data in the Mission and a few neighborhoods directly adjacent to it, it’s pretty clear 2014’s numbers are on track to keep up with trends in 2013. Median sale prices are up as well as percent of houses sold above asking price. And buyers are grabbing available property even faster than they were in 2013.

Another report by Paragon Realty reported that prices in the Mission District have climbed 45 percent since the pre-crash highs of 2006 to 2008. That makes the Mission the neighborhood with the highest appreciation in the city.

The data below from Redfin does only reflect annual numbers (through October for 2014) and real estate is seasonal affair. When it’s cold outside people buy fewer homes. So it’s possible quarterly data may show a slightly different trend. Also of note, in many neighborhoods the rate of rising sale prices is slowing down somewhat. In the Mission, for example, median sale prices increased 19 percent from 2012 to 2013. In 2014, that increase was down to 15 percent.

All in all, the data shows a pretty consistent picture for the Mission and its neighbors: homes are getting more expensive to buy and demand is getting higher.

Daniel Hirsch

Daniel Hirsch is a freelance writer who has been living in the Mission since 2009. When he's not contributing to Mission Local, he's writing plays, working as an extra for HBO, and/or walking to the top...

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7 Comments

  1. I really liked the charts that are provided, but it would be even better if they could go back to the ear 2000 as we would be able to see how things were before the recession. This would give a better idea of what normal should be. Although applying the word “Normal” to the San Francisco housing market is never easy.

    1. Here is a chart projected back to 1987, showing that SF home prices have quadrupled in that period. That’s an annualized growth rate of about 6.5% a year.

      http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2014/06/top-tier-san-francisco-home-condo-values-hit-time-high.html

      But that chart is only for a five-county subset of SF Bay Area, and so deflected by lower rates of appreciation in the burbs. SF city is now way ahead of the prior 2007 high.

      Anecdote: The 94110 building I bought in 1998 for 500K and sold for 1.1 million in 2004 is now over 1.5 million. While the last building I bought, for 1 million in 2011, is already at 1.6 million.

      You can make money from tech indirectly, just like selling shovels and clothes to gold miners.

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