Covid-19 Tracker: Delta’s slow descent

Read Mission Local often?

Help grow our newsroom, joining the 3,250 readers who support us by giving below.

Donate today!

Good morning, Mission, and welcome to Virus Village, your (somewhat regular) Covid-19 data dump.

After more than a week, the numbers once again resumed their slow decline. Especially encouraging are fewer Covid-19 hospitalizations.

Most observers, based on what happened in India and the UK, expected Delta to rise exponentially then fall along a similar slope. The exponential rise in SF occurred as predicted, but not for as long or as high as feared. Going down has been halting. Why? No one really knows, as this article in the Chronicle, with a misleading headline, suggests.

Why is L.A. doing so well this round? Vaccinations, yes, but also infections that have been found to protect people as well as, and in at least one study, better than the vaccines. This should not be construed as an anti-vax argument, as all agree gaining protection from vaccines is far preferable, from an individual and community perspective.

At least that study was based on data. When decisions are made on the lack of data, what guidance is being followed?

On Friday, I linked to an excellent article from the Washington Post on dangerous research conducted by the global network of virus labs funded by the National Institutes of Health and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 2001. For those looking for more detail, check out this interview with longtime biosafety critic Richard Ebright.

Scroll down for today’s covid numbers.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control data used for the chart lags behind the data supplied from the San Francisco Department of Public Health. As of Aug. 29, DPH reports more than 78 percent of all San Francisco residents have received one dose, and more than 72 percent are completely vaccinated. On Aug. 29, the seven-day rolling average of shots per day to new recipients was 558. For information on where to get vaccinated in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

On Aug. 26, DPH reports there were 102 hospitalizations, 66 in acute care, 34 in the ICU. The latest update from DPH says 63 fully vaccinated San Franciscans have been hospitalized (a rate of 13.4 per 1,000 cases compared to 79.2 per 1,000 cases for those not fully vaccinated) . According to the CDC, for the week ending Aug. 27, covid patients accounted for 6 percent of hospital beds (no change) and 13.87 percent of ICU beds (no change). 

The latest report from the federal Department of Health and Human Services shows SFGH with 19 covid patients and 79 percent ICU occupancy, while across the Mission, CPMC had 17 covid patients and 76 percent ICU occupancy. Of 122 reported covid patients, 58 were at either SFGH or UCSF.

Between June 26 and Aug. 25, DPH reported 716 new cases among Mission residents (or 123 new cases per 10,000 residents) and 829 new cases in Bayview Hunters Point (219 new cases per 10,000 residents). During this period, only the Mission, Bayview Hunters Point and Sunset/Parkside had more than 400 new cases. Although 18 neighborhoods had rates over 100 per 10,000 residents, a map of the City’s new cases continues to show the enduring tale of two cities. 

For the week ending Aug. 22, the seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in the city was 157 new cases, or approximately 17.5 new cases per day per 100,000 residents (based on an 896,000 population).

As of Aug. 29, DPH guesses that more than 90 percent of Pacific Islanders and Native Americans have had at least one vaccine dose. Eighty percent of Asians, 79 percent of Latinxs, 67 percent of Whites and 66 percent of Blacks are also estimated to have received at least one dose.

So far for the month of August, Pacific Islanders have a 7 percent positivity rate (up from 5.7 percent in July), Native Americans 4.8 percent (up from 4.2 percent), Latinx 7.7 percent (down from 8.4 percent), Blacks 6.7 percent (down from 8.4 percent), Whites 3.9 percent (down from 4.4 percent), Asian 2.5 percent (down from 2.7 percent) and Multi-racial 2.5 percent (up from 1.9 percent).

Covid-related deaths in San Francisco are always difficult to ascertain. Now DPH reports 1 more in August, bringing the covid-related death toll to 584. DPH provides no demographic data for monthly deaths, but reports that 2 of the covid-related deaths were those fully vaccinated.

Although these estimates confirm the observation that the virus is locally receding, R Number estimations are notoriously fickle. Expect to see more fluctuations. Covid R Estimation puts the San Francisco R Number at .91, and its estimate for the California R number to 1.09. All models in the ensemble estimate the San Francisco R Number below 1, with an average of .79, while the average California R Number is .95.

As of Aug. 29, 94 percent of San Francisco residents 65 and older had received at least one vaccine dose, while 88 percent are fully vaccinated. This group accounts for close to 11 percent of all August cases so far. School aged residents (5 to 17) account for approximately 9 percent of August cases, and 5 percent of all San Franciscans who have received vaccinations.