Covid Tracker: 33,099 cases, 366 deaths

Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Don’t get too excited about that very small rise in total cases, which probably has more to do with reporting than reality.

But do get excited about the effective testing from the 24th BART station, Alemany and other sites in the Southeast. One of the more hopeful signs, especially now amidst shortages in vaccine supplies.

Oy variant! Another indication of why more resources should be directed toward rapid testing and community support.

The guidelines for school reopenings from the new, revised, science-oriented CDC have been taking a lot of criticism, especially since they provide support for keeping schools closed.

No one ever accused the Department of Building Inspection of being science, or technology oriented, which can get in the way of good old fashioned corruption.

While waiting for your vaccination, scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

Operation Snail’s Pace continues to live up to its reputation. Just as distribution issues were being sorted out, supplies stopped coming. As of February 13, over 15 percent (118,120) of San Francisco residents over 18 have received one dose, while over 4 percent (33,639) have received two. On February 13, 2370 shots were delivered to San Franciso residents, with a seven day rolling average of shots per day falling to 4957.7. The DPH goal is 10,000 shots per day.  For information on where to get vaccinated (when The Vaccine shows up again) in and around the Mission, visit our Vaccination Page.

Covid-19 R Estimation keeps SF on top of the state (with Marin) at .84. while the ensemble says .83.  Estimates for California’s R Number range from .54 to .94 for an average of .71.

Between January 13 and February 11, DPH reported 384 new cases in the Mission  or 64.4 cases per 10,000 residents. Bayview Hunters Point had  427 new cases or 114 new cases per 10,000 residents.  Elsewhere, Tenderloin had 96.7, Excelsior 81, Bernal Heights, 53.8, Western Addition 48.6, Chinatown 45.5, Hayes Valley 36.1, Castro 29.2, Sunset/Parkside 26.7, and Haight Ashbury 23.2 new cases per 10,000 residents. Seacliff had 11 new cases.

Don’t be fooled by that steep drop at the end of the graph. Those are raw numbers that often reflect the day a case was recorded, not collected. For the week ending February 7, the seven-day average of daily new cases in the City dropped slightly to  139, or 15.9 new cases per day per 100,000 residents. To fully open K-12 to in person instruction under CDC guidelines would require less than 10 cases per 100,000 residents. 

DPH doesn’t provide updates on race/ethnicity numbers until the 18th of the month.

Today’s numbers include 1 ICU transfer, and 1 transfer in Acute Care. For the week ending February 13, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients dropped another 28 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 29 percent and Acute Care availability was 23 percent. On February 12, DPH reports 100 percent surge availability in both ICU and Acute Care. Covid patients account for 13 percent of ICU beds and 5 percent of Acute Care beds.

SFGH remains the City’s most heavily impacted hospital by the virus.  Current federal reporting now shows SFGH with 19 Covid patients and 1 available ICU bed. On the other side of the Mission, CPMC has 14 Covid patients and 5 available ICU beds.

The testing at 24th Bart Station in January found each day anywhere from 16 to 46 percent of all positive cases in the city. Not too surprising given that we’ve known since last April where to find most of the City’s positive test results. The site recorded a positivity rate of 9.62 percent during the month.

The 14 day average positivity rate in California dropped below 5 percent for the first time since November 17.

In January, nursing home cases rose over 25 percent. As of February 2, nursing homes  reported less than 2 percent of the City’s cases and 27 percent of the City’s deaths.

Cumulative Covid Deaths in San Francisco

While we revise our Covid deaths graph, here’s the DPH chart taken from their website: https://data.sfgov.org/stories/s/dak2-gvuj.