Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.
Rather than put it off for yet another two weeks, Breed, Colfax, et. al., along with friends and allies in other Bay Area counties, bowed to the inevitable and ordered stricter restrictions. Call it shelter-in-place lite. It’s a drag for small businesses which get no help from the cruelly penurious federal government.
Otherwise, it’s a good weekend for live music, a flea market and making your own tortillas.
Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
In the month of November, the Mission logged 404 new cases. A new hot spot emerged, between 23rd, Cesar Chavez, Harrison and Bryant. As of December 2, the Mission had a cumulative total of 2202 positive cases,Ā or 37 cases per 1000 residents.
Covid-19 R Estimation for CaliforniaĀ and the ensemble of models roughly agree, estimating San Francisco’s R number at approximately 1.3. They widely disagree on California with Covid 19 R estimating the State R number over 1.4, while the ensemble estimates around 1.14.
For the week ending November 27, the seven-day average number of Citywide daily cases dropped to 122 or 14.1 cases per 100,000 residents. Again, the slipping number may represent no more than a delay in reporting due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
A slight drop in the absolute number of SF confirmed patients, but the weekly rate of change in Covid positive patients for the week ending December 2 still showed a gain ofĀ 36 percent. During that week DPH reports the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 34 percent and for Acute Care beds 30 percent.Ā The data presented on the DPH website is somewhat different than what Colfax presented, but the differences are not that significant.
In the wake of Newsom’s decision, the Chron has quoted a number of local epidemiologists on the percentage of those infected by the virus who end up in the hospital. Where those figures come from is difficult to ascertain. California does not provide cumulative hospitalization numbers, and neither does San Francisco. We know we have a lot of people in the hospital relative to the capacity of California’s hospitals which have been severely weakened by decades of cost-cutting.
As more results from the pre- and post-Thanksgiving tests taken among the City’s Latinx population, expect the positivity rate to rise.
DPH attributes 211 cases and 34 deaths to San Francisco nursing homes, which is significantly better than the 100,000 nationwide deaths attributed to nursing homes.
Pacific Heights has the most deaths with 19, followed by Bayview-Hunters Point with 14, Japantown with 12 and Tenderloin with 11. The Mission has had less than 10 deaths so far.