Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.
Though we have nothing to fear from the virus, Dark Ages Donald has bet billions (of our dollars) on a vaccine to get re-elected. While waiting, here’s what we might expect.
Whenever The Vaccine comes, it’s going to be “safe and effective, right? Remember the companies joined hands, got down on their knees, and swore they would never cut corners with something this serious. And these virtuous firms would never forswear. Or would they?
Meanwhile, consider other remedies. Computer simulations and preprinted anecdotes suggest eating burgers in the Mission might be the alternative therapy we’ve been seeking.
Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
HiGeorge, a data visualization startup, developed some new visualizations for Mission Local, which we will be using and fine-tuning in the days to come.
As of October 3, DPH reports a total of 1606 total cases in the Mission, or 27 cases per 1000 residents, more than double the Citywide figure. In the blocks bordered by 17th and 22nd Streets, Valencia and South Van Ness, there are 338 confirmed Covid cases, or 5.3 cases per 1000 residents.
Meanwhile, the seven-day Citywide average number of daily cases for the week ending September 29 fell again to 48, or 5.5 cases per 100,000 residents.
The San Francisco way of death continues to mystify. Even though DPH has been reporting 107 and 108 deaths for the past few days, on September 25, there were 111 deaths, the number first reported today.
The R number model we use shows a falling number in SF and a rising number across the State. Given the uncertainty factored into the calculation, the differences, either increase or decrease, are not that significant. Most models show both SF and CA below 1.
As of October 4, California had a 14-day average positivity rate of 2.8 percent. On August 25, the figure was 6.1 percent. How was such a quick turnaround accomplished?
With 55 confirmed and suspected Covid cases in SF hospitals, as of October 4, there were 121 ICU beds, and 463 Acute Care beds available.
Sec. of Health Mark Ghaly just announced a new health equity metric; that the test positivity rate in census tracts in the bottom 25th percentile of the “healthy places” index need to be inline with the overall test positivity rate for the county in order to remain a certain tier (or move forward to the next tier).
San Francisco’s index can be found here: https://map.healthyplacesindex.org/
Interestingly, the Mission is not considered to fall into this lowest 25th percentile (though the Bayview does), which means San Francisco might not be penalized for undersampling the hard-hit Latino community.