Mayor London Breed has conceded her race, writing on social media at 4:33 p.m. on Thursday that Daniel Lurie will become San Francisco’s next mayor, and giving a brief press conference at City Hall saying she will work with Lurie on a smooth transition.
“I called Daniel Lurie earlier today to congratulate him, and made it very clear that my team and I stand ready to support him during this transition,” she said inside her office, surrounded by cameras and standing before San Francisco’s flag. “The campaign has to be behind us. We have to move forward as a city.”
Lurie will make an announcement at 11 a.m. on Friday on the results.
“I’m deeply grateful to my incredible family, campaign team and every San Franciscan who voted for accountability, service, and change. No matter who you supported in this election, we stand united in the fight for San Francisco’s future and a safer and more affordable city for all,” Lurie wrote in a statement.
The Levi Strauss heir sank more than $8.6 million of his own cash into his race, and was bolstered by another $8 million in donations and outside spending. The $32 million spent on the race for Room 200 made it the most expensive mayor’s race in city history.
Breed made her concession after the Department of Elections released its latest batch of results at 3:57 p.m. on Thursday. Those results showed that Lurie’s Election Day lead over Breed, of 56 percent to 44 percent, had shrunk by just 0.14 percent. About 143,000 votes are still outstanding, but the tabulation from ranked-choice votes does not show a path to victory for Breed.
“They don’t look different enough at this point,” said Jason McDaniel, a professor at San Francisco State University with a focus on ranked-choice voting. “Lurie has just as much support from Aaron Peskin supporters as Breed has, but he has much more support from Mark Farrell supporters. That’s the game.”
Mayor’s race ranked-choice voting breakdown
These are preliminary results last updated on November 7 at 4 p.m. Approximately 143,000 ballots are left to be counted. Data from the San Francisco Department of Elections. Table by Kelly Waldron.
On Thursday afternoon, Farrell emailed a concession and urged his supporters to “get behind our next Mayor;” he was in fourth place. Peskin, in third, has not yet conceded, but his path to victory is exceedingly unlikely, experts said.
Incumbent mayors rarely lose their seats, and one hasn’t lost in San Francisco since Frank Jordan’s 1995 defeat to Willie Brown. But a post-pandemic malaise left San Franciscans — and denizens across the country and world — surly with reigning leadership.
“There was a headwind against Covid-era elected officials,” said Todd David, the political director of the Abundance Network, which ran the political action committee backing Breed to the tune of $2.6 million. “Winning re-election as the mayor of an urban center was incredibly difficult.”
For Breed, like others, incumbency was a double-edged sword: She had universal name recognition, and could use her day job to demonstrate action on the campaign trail. Breed did this, engaging in frequent boosterism and touting crowded farmers’ markets, downtown entertainment zones, and City Hall raves as proof that “San Francisco is back.”
But incumbency also meant Breed was blamed for an empty downtown, mounting corruption scandals, and perceptions of crime and lawlessness on city streets — even as she took pains to point out that crime is down, homeless encampments are dwindling, and overdose deaths are plummeting.
All that, experts said, led Breed to lose the moderate coalition that has helped San Francisco mayors get elected for three decades: Chinese voters, white homeowners, older white renters, and Republicans.
“London wasn’t able to hold the Ed Lee, Willie Brown, Gavin Newsom coalition,” said David Ho, a San Francisco political consultant and Chinatown organizer. Every campaign made a play for the Chinese vote, but Lurie appears to have best taken those neighborhoods: Precinct-level results show Lurie got more first-choice votes from neighborhoods like the Sunset, Richmond, and Portola than Breed.
“That just tells me whoever can manufacture the proudest coalition that includes neighborhoods and people of color is probably going to do well,” Ho said. “It’s always been that way.”
Mayor’s race results by precinct
“San Franciscans, for a long time, have been deeply unhappy with their government and the direction of the city and, while she did inherit a lot of these problems, voters believed she didn’t help make them better,” added John Whitehurst, another consultant.
Lurie, meanwhile, benefitted from a professional staff, a dearth of scandal, consistent No. 2 votes from rivals’ supporters — and $16 million in cash.
“Let’s be clear: He won because he was able to spend $16 million, the most money ever spent to get elected to office in San Francisco history,” said Jim Ross, a longtime strategist and Gavin Newsom’s 2003 campaign manager. Lurie used his millions to “build name ID and to get attention” after starting the race as an unknown.
He then ran a controversy-free campaign as the only newcomer to politics among the five frontrunners, and emphasized the fact.
“Daniel ran a very smart and strategic campaign, he ran as an outsider, he stayed on message, he was very disciplined,” added Myrna Melgar, the District 7 supervisor and a longtime Breed ally.
Said David of the pro-Breed PAC: “He had a message that resonated, he had the resources to get that message out far and wide, and he ran a really disciplined campaign. All of these things together — it equaled a really difficult race for London Breed.”
Breed, for her part, said serving as San Francisco’s mayor had been “a tremendous opportunity,” and that she would continue the day-in, day-out job of managing the city for the next two months.
Not half an hour after her concession speech ended, she was doing just that: Standing on City Hall’s grand staircase for an American Indian ceremony, she gave short remarks and said her tenure had been an honor. Her voice cracked, briefly, as she thanked the crowd.
In light of the Trump win, It’s a bummer a black woman lost to a white nepo baby who’s never had a job but Breed gerrymandered the supe districts and dragged us to the right with a fear campaign about crime, which was so craven and has been so damaging locally and nationally and ultimately it turned its ire on her. Karma is a b**tch eh? See ya!
Another way of looking at this is how Trump and Breed are largely cut from the same cloth: Corrupt and driven by spite. Overall, to me at least, the fail of established candidates Breed, Farrell, is an indictment of the Willie Brown school of governing.
The aforementioned black woman actually betrayed our black and brown population during her reign of terror that lasted 6 long and miserable years. Identity politics doesn’t serve anyone other than politicians like her who exploit it for their benefits. I’m delighted to see her gone regardless of what new miseries the next mayor will bring. She was corrupt, petty, vindictive, and toxic. Good riddance and bon débarras!
The Willie Brown/John Burton political machine has finally been extinguished. The nonprofity progressives have been winnowed down to a couple. For the first time in decades, the political position of both partners in corruption has been marginalized. Let’s hope Lurie has the chops to clear a space for participatory politics to happen free from domination by these predatory self serving operators.
Anyone who wears a Montana jersey in his ad needs to get his head examined.
Interesting that Peskin’s transfer votes broke down into rough thirds, with exhausted votes coming in ahead of Breed who in turn led Lurie by 2156 votes.
A glimmer of good news on an otherwise godawful, terrible election day. Thank you Mayor Breed for your service in these tough times but it’s now time for a new leader and I for one have high hopes of Mayor Lurie. Mr. Lurie, don’t let the orange clown machine keep you from kicking ass for our city.
Lurianic Kabbalah for the win. Cry emoji.
I can’t believe she got as much support as she still did. Hand-washing gesture.
A new day begins.
Thank you London Breed for your service and for your love of San Francisco. I voted for you in the #2 position because San Francisco needs tough leadership, less bureaucracy, and a Board of Supervisors who listen and support the millions of hardworking, tax paying citizens of San Francisco and NOT just the loud mouthed socialists who have time to assault City Hall every day, while internal corruption ensues. The rest of us are not rallying at City Hall. We are quietly WORKING jobs to pay the high taxes that pay for the bureaucracy at City Hall. The socialist Board of Supervisors waste money and continue to fund programs that don’t work or reflect the majority of SF residents. Ie., Housing is not a constitutional right, it is a privilege that must be earned. If people can’t afford to live here, they gotta move somewhere else! Why waste money temporarily housing them in private property? The 4,000 incorrigible people impact a city of MILLIONS. Focus only on the unhoused folks that have potential for employment, who go to rehab and job training workshops; institutionalize the mentally ill, and force the rest out (a blacklist and a one way ticket exile, and ban on public assistance). The City knows exactly who they are and how to do it. The filth, unenforced crime, and its “politically correct” policies on being soft on drug addicts and their dealers, and keeping the dignity of lazy people (who bask in the sun of San Francisco’s socialist reputation, progressive courts, and great weather) RUIN San Francisco. I hope that newcomer Daniel Lurie and new supervisors can lead a 180 degree turn on how SF deals with the homeless and “do gooder” homeless advocates. It just might work. As far as cleaning up the filth and dirt, it can be done — as exhibited during important conventions this past year. A program of more garbage cans and issuing citations (fines) for littering, loitering and graffiti couldn’t hurt either. I regularly observe police officers downtown standing around doing nothing. Even if the fines don’t get paid, the City can identify the culprits and create a record against them. Bad adult behavior can be cured if the City gets tougher on enforcement.
She’s a liar. She’s a cheat. She broke her own COVID protocols because she decided that Tony Toni Tone was more important. She broke SF ethics laws using official title to petition for her manslaughtering brother to get out of prison early. Nevermind that she falsified an alibi for same. She was adjacent to at least a half dozen people who went to prison for unreasonably fraudulent dealings with her under color of duty. London Breed didn’t significantly move the needle on housing, nor housing for the lower incomes, and significantly disregarded the rights of homeless deliberately on almost every occasion, if not purely for photo ops. We can do better, we deserve better, and frankly if she gets a real job outside of politics she could probably do better in her “tough life” as midnight mayor with connections to Xi’s government and Walter Wong’s ilk. Please. People weren’t itching for a Billionaire, he just happens to be football fields better than Breed in any actual metric you want to look at.