The San Francisco Department of Elections moments ago released the tally of an additional 29,917 ballots. That brings the grand total of processed ballots to 289,135 — 55.4 percent of the electorate.
There are, perhaps, 117,000 ballots remaining. Today’s results are, clearly, not final — but they do provide a modicum of clarity. The ceiling on turnout appears to be about 77.8 percent, just a shade higher than the 77 percent historical average in presidential contests going back to 1916.
Clarity was not needed in the mayor’s race. Mayor London Breed conceded the race yesterday and Daniel Lurie today claimed victory. After today’s ballot drop and ranked-choice voting permutations, Lurie leads by 27,308 votes (55.8 percent to 44.2 percent). While Breed or even Aaron Peskin could, as a mathematical exercise, still prevail, this race — again — has been conceded.
With a new mayor, the dynamics between the occupant of Room 200 and the Board of Supervisors are yet to be determined. Depending on how the votes stack up, San Francisco could have its least experienced mayor and board come January … at a time when the city is facing grave crises from within and without.
On to the results.
Thursday’s ballot drop resulted in the mathematical oddity of District 1 incumbent supervisor Connie Chan and challenger Marjan Philhour both having exactly 11,001 votes.
After today’s additional ballots and following ranked-choice voting tabulations, Chan now leads by a 12,117 to 11,855 tally (50.55 percent to 49.45 percent). While late-arriving votes tend to lean progressive — though this is an alchemy more than a science — in a race separated by 262 votes anything could happen down the stretch.
Incidentally, the official method of settling a tied vote in a Board of Supervisors race is a “drawing of lots” — that is, drawing long or short straws. It now appears less likely this will come to pass in District 1.
In District 5, Bilal Mahmood continues to outpace incumbent Dean Preston. While Preston actually has 19 more first-place votes than Mahmood, the secondary and tertiary votes from other candidates give Mahmood a 1,287 vote bulge. While a goodly number of votes are outstanding, every subsequent tranche of votes has not helped Preston cut into Mahmood’s lead. This pattern could reverse in the coming days, but there’s no logical reason to expect it should. Preston is running out of electorate with which to make up the gap.
In District 7, Supervisor Myrna Melgar added 522 votes to her lead over political newcomer Matt Boschetto and is now ahead by nearly 1,500. If these results hold up, Melgar is looking like the fulcrum of a more moderate new board.
In District 11, Michael Lai and Chyanne Chen continue to run neck-in-neck. After today’s tally, Chen trails Lai by 136 votes — 47 fewer than yesterday. Every subsequent tranche of votes has cut into Lai’s lead, but this, again, is far too close to call.
In Districts 3 and 9 Danny Sauter and Jackie Fielder continue to hold nigh-insurmountable advantages.
In the Board of Education race, top vote-getters Jaime Huling, Parag Gupta and Supriya Ray will be taking office in January. In the battle for the fourth and final slot, newcomer John Jersin is 2,150 votes ahead of incumbent board president Matt Alexander (89,480 to 87,330). Alexander gained 1,100 votes since Thursday’s counting. We have a race.
There were 15 ballot measures put before San Francisco voters in this election. There are no significant changes from prior standings. The lavishly funded Prop. D continues to flail and is now being rejected by nearly 56 percent of the electorate. Its scantly funded countermeasure, Prop. E, looks to be pulling ahead; it now has nearly 52 percent of the vote and gained some 3,000 votes since yesterday.
Prop. F, a police pension measure, continues to be submerged with nearly 54 percent of voters inveighing against it. Prop. H, a fire pension measure, is clinging to a 51.8 percent approval rate.
Prop. K, the polarizing measure to close portions of the Great Highway, made gains today. A shade over 54 percent of voters are now in favor of shutting down the roadway.
The next updates will come on Saturday at 4 p.m., Sunday at 4 p.m. and Monday at 4 p.m.
So much for Preston feeling “vainglorious” about Round 1 RCV. He’s been losing every round. I think much of San Francisco will be relieved if not celebratory if he is defeated.
On a crude mod / progressive scale re Melgar as the fulcrum , the general consensus of the new board would be Sauter, Lai, Stefani replacement, Dorsey, Mahmood, Engardio on the moderate side and Chan , Walton, Mandelman, Fielder on the progressive side ?
Will —
Michael Lai and Chyanne Chen are in a very tight race and Chen is gaining votes in each subsequent drop. Today will be informative but nobody can call that one. You would rather be in Connie Chan’s position than Marjan Philhour’s but that, too, is not a finished race.
How the board relates to the mayor, and what the mayor wants, are hard to call at this time. Where to place Melgar and Mandelman is also difficult.
Yours,
JE
Joe,
You’ve yet to mention Jim Sutton’s role in all of this.
Best Political Campaign lawyer in town closes his firm to work Full-time to elect Moderates and it’s not worth a word ?
He was the lawyer of record for Chandler and Looijen and Kaplan and others and I talked to Chandler and had coffee with Looijen and am betting Autumn’s 2nd Place Votes swung the thing for Mahmood.
You got any idea how many candidates for the various Boards and Commissions listed him as their Counsel this round ?
At least we’re all united behind Brock Purdy.
Or, are we ??!!??
lol
h.
Makes sense, thanks Joe … Yes, will be interesting to see what the Mayor wants besides apple pie and the Giants winning…. smart politics in ranked choice campaigns I guess.
Engardio is on the sellout/Breed/Weiner corruption side.
Moderate is a term of art at best.
I feel like Mandleman (my supervisor) has actually beeen relatively moderate.