For the first time ever, voters in San Francisco will elect a mayor on the same day they will select a president. Far more residents are likely to head to the polls to participate in the local election, compared to previous years. But what does San Francisco’s electorate look like?
San Francisco has an estimated 504,000 registered voters, which represents about 72 percent of the city’s adult population, according to voter registration data obtained from the San Francisco Department of Elections.
Approximately 26 percent of San Francisco’s voters are Asian, 11 percent are Latino, 5 percent are Black and 59 percent are white, according to numbers from Political Data, a firm that compiles demographic and political statistics used by consultants, pollsters and researchers.
SF electorate ethnicity breakdown
Black
Latino
Asian
White / Other
4.5%
10.6%
59%
25.8%
4.5%
Black
Latino
10.6%
25.8%
Asian
White / Other
59%
Source: politicaldata.com. Chart by Kelly Waldron.
The San Francisco Department of Elections does not collect data on race and ethnicity; Political Data’s racial breakdown was gathered by cross-referencing information on voters’ birthplaces, surnames, ballot languages and addresses.
These remain very broad categories. While each voting block is important, “it’s not a monolith,” said Maggie Muir, a political consultant working on Mayor London Breed’s campaign. The Asian vote is broken into many groups, the largest being Chinese, at roughly 15 percent.
Yet this kind of information does influence how candidates shape their campaigns, be it spending more time going to banquets in Chinatown or disseminating campaign materials in different languages.
Top five languages
Percentage breakdown of voters by requested ballot language.
Language
Percentage
English
91.66
1
Chinese
5.95
2
1.53
Spanish
3
Vietnamese
0.34
4
0.21
Tagalog
5
Language
Percentage
English
91.66
Chinese
5.95
Spanish
1.53
Vietnamese
0.34
Tagalog
0.21
To outsiders, San Francisco appears to be a blue, homogeneous city — but not in reality, said Paul Mitchell, vice president at Political Data.
“There’s just many more flavors of ideological standing,” said Mitchell, making the election more complex. “Elections in San Diego are tic-tac-toe, and elections in San Francisco are like a Rubik’s cube.”
It is, however, very blue, and Mitchell was referring to the complexities within a largely Democratic city. In San Francisco, some 64 percent of voters are registered with the Democratic Party, and only about eight percent are registered with the Republican Party; the remaining voters are either not registered with either, or are registered with another party.
The 64 percent registered as democrats can range from very progressive to more conservative. Much of the new big money, for example, has gone toward trying to rid the city of progressive elected officials. And, within different ethnic communities, different generations can be more or less progressive.
This election will also engage many new voters: Close to a fifth, 96,000, have registered since the last general election in 2020. Among them, most are likely new residents; only a portion of them, some 13,000, are voters who turned 18 during that same period.
However, even with the influx of new voters in San Francisco since the last general election, and the decrease in overall city population in 2020, the overall number of voters has remained the same in the last few years.
San Francisco’s historic voter turnout
While 96,000 new voters have registered since the last general election, and overall population has decreased, the number of registered voters has more or less remained the same.
500K
Reg
450K
400K
350K
300K
250K
Turnout
200K
150K
100K
50K
0
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Reg
Turnout
500K
450K
400K
350K
300K
250K
200K
150K
100K
50K
0
2010
2015
2020
Source: San Francisco Department of Elections. Chart by Kelly Waldron.
While there is some debate over how high turnout will be nationally this year, Muir expects it to be high, matching previous highs seen during federal-election years. “Just across the board, you’re going to have a higher turnout amongst different demographics,” said Muir; in particular, those who are occasional voters.
In 2020, San Francisco saw the highest percentage of voters heading to the polls: Around 86 percent.
Turnout among currently registered voters
The percentage of voters who voted in the last two general elections
2016
50.22
2020
68.85
50.22
2016
2020
68.85
Source: San Francisco Department of Elections. Chart by Kelly Waldron.
The majority of currently registered voters participated in the last general election, and turnout was slightly higher among voters who registered with either the Democratic or Republican party, compared to voters affiliated with other parties or none.
Turnout by party
The percentage of currently registered voters who voted in the last two general elections, by party
2016
2020
Democratic
54%
72%
No Party Pref.
43%
62%
Republican
51%
71%
Other
37%
56%
2016
2020
Democratic
54%
72%
No Party
43%
62%
Preference
Republican
51%
71%
Other
37%
56%
Source: San Francisco Department of Elections. Chart by Kelly Waldron.
There is also a difference in the turnout among different age groups. Across the country, older voters turn out in greater numbers, and that was true in San Francisco as well. However, many younger voters currently registered may not have been yet registered to vote in 2020.
Turnout by age
The percentage of currently registered voters who voted in the last two general elections, by age
2016
2020
18-29
7%
36%
30-49
43%
66%
50-64
67%
81%
65+
73%
83%
2016
2020
18-29
7%
36%
30-49
43%
66%
50-64
67%
81%
65+
73%
83%
Source: San Francisco Department of Elections. Chart by Kelly Waldron.
Kelly created an interesting story because of the use of graphs and text, with attractive headlines and sub-headlines. From reading these 17 paragraphs and six graphs, I have come away with both a broad stroke and a specific understanding of San Francisco’s most recent voting patterns. Great job, Kelly, and great job Mission Local!
Steve Johnson,
You are so right about the way this lady writes.
I found myself stopping in middle and going back to look at her other work.
Lydia sure can pick em.
h.
Turn out would be higher in all California Counties if, as with Nebraska
and Maine, have District Method of electoral votes. Each Congressional
district has its electoral vote determined by voters in that district, with the candidate who gets most popular votes getting the remaining two electoral votes. Thus in California with 55 electoral votes, votes would be allocated to candidate who got most votes in each congressional districts and the 2 remaining electoral votes going to the candidate
who got the most popular votes. There would be greater voter
turnout up and down the elected offices on the local, state, and
federal levels. No one party would have a monopoly. And, National
Candidates would not take California for granted in Presidential elections. In 1984, for instance, the voters of South Central LA had
no say when Ronald Reagan, the GOP candidate, was awarded all
of the then 56 electoral votes in the winner takes all election. That would not have occurred in the District Method.
Pathetic turn out numbers. Afghanistan got 90% even with death threats.
Ha, Mission Local has spent the last few years telling us there is nobody in San Francisco but the righteous, and right-wing billionaires. I want to see that chart:
“40% righteous! 60% right-wing billionaires.”