If voters were to head to the polls to elect a new mayor today, Mark Farrell would likely come out on top in first-place votes, a poll commissioned by his campaign shows.
The poll, conducted by Impact Research — whose past clients include President Joseph Biden, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama — shows little headway for Mayor London Breed since The San Francisco Chronicle published its poll in February.
Since that time, Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin has joined the race, but the top three contenders remain the same: Farrell would be the first-choice candidate for 23 percent of respondents; followed by Breed, with 21 percent; and Daniel Lurie, a Levi Strauss heir and nonprofit CEO, with 20 percent.
Farrell remains first choice among likely voters, poll shows
23%
Farrell
21%
Breed
Lurie
20%
Peskin
17%
Safaí
4%
Other
5%
Undecided
11%
Farrell
23%
21%
Breed
20%
Lurie
17%
Peskin
Safaí
4%
Other
5%
Undecided
11%
500 likely voters were surveyed by phone and online in English, Spanish, Mandarin and Cantonese between June 1 and June 6. Source: Impact Research, via Mark Farrell’s campaign. Chart by Kelly Waldron.
Peskin is ranked second-to-last, and would receive 17 percent of the first-choice votes, according to the poll, followed by Supervisor Ahsha Safaí, with a dwindling four percent. Eleven percent of respondents said their first choice remains undecided, and five percent said they would choose another candidate. More than 50 people have entered the race.
The margin of error for this poll is 4.5 percent which, in effect, means any of the top contenders could be in first place.
“These results show a 3-way tie for first place, with Farrell’s support having plateaued while Lurie continues to gain ground. Ultimately, Lurie’s field leading favorability reflects that he’s best positioned to prevail in a rank choice voting contest,” said David Binder, the pollster for Lurie’s campaign.
Jim Stearns, a political consultant for Peskin’s campaign, said he does not comment on other people’s polls.
The results are suboptimal for Breed who, during her campaign, has put a positive spin on the state of the city: She has recently touted declining crime rates, what she calls the city’s “enlightenment period,” and events such as a recent impromptu Skrillex rave.
In the survey, 67 percent of respondents gave Breed a negative favorability rating, and 56 percent said that “things in San Francisco are going poorly, and we need a drastic change to get back on track.”
Those results are not markedly different from those obtained by the Chronicle in February. In that survey of 812 likely voters, 71 percent of respondents disapproved of Breed’s performance as mayor
While other candidates have commissioned their own polls, Farrell’s campaign is the first to publicize any results, presumably because it means spreading a good word.
“Our campaign has been in first place since launch, we are taking nothing for granted, and have no intention of easing off the gas,” said Farrell, in a statement.
Farrell echoed a similar sentiment at his recent campaign headquarters launch in West Portal. During the event, his team applauded their campaign’s progress, but warned against becoming complacent. “We cannot rest on our laurels,” he said.
Farrell’s campaign also released select responses to other questions, including an open-ended question where respondents were asked to describe each candidate. Eleven percent described Farrell as “experienced,” while 6 percent described him as “moderate.” Farrell’s campaign would not disclose whether these were the most common words received.
Lurie received the highest favorability rating, 39 percent, followed by Farrell at 36 percent and Peskin at 26 percent.
Impact Research conducted the survey over the phone and web, in English, Spanish, Mandarin and Cantonese from June 1 to 6. Responses from 500 likely voters were collected.
Requests for comment were made on Wednesday morning to the Breed, Lurie, Peskin and Safaí campaigns, and this story will be updated when they reply.
He is a TogetherSF candidate. Which means I’m for anyone but Farrell.
LOL! I wonder what the polls would show if San Francisco voters saw the video I have of the favor then Supervisor Mark Farrell gave to a business that took a $1.3 billion stadium project out of a struggling Black neighborhood of the city. The $5 million lease was cut to $1 million for the final year the 49ers leased Candlestick Park.
folks,
I can recall when Gallop was the only respected poll because they published the entire ‘instrument’ (questions).
For a couple of decades no reputable news outlet would publish the results of a poll w/out also publishing the questions.
Nowadays not everyone get’s the same questions in a poll as the Working Directions for ‘Pollsters’ guides them to switch directions with their questions depending upon the ‘Pollee’s’ answers.
They’re called ‘Push-Polls’ and are dishonest.
David Binder did a Poll for Newsom in 2003 that changed paths quickly if you indicated that you were going to vote for Matt Gonzalez …
“Would you still vote for him if you knew he had Pornography hanging in is bedroom?”
Of course it was BS and I confronted Binder about it in person.
He cringed and said:
“I ask the questions my clients tells me to ask.”
He’s considered a respectable pollster by the local Machine.
h.
This is easy to dissect in the world of ranked choice voting.
(TL/DR? Breed leads after rounds 2 & 3, but falls to Lurie or Farrell in round 4.)
* Safari falls in the first round, his voters go to Peskin and or Breed, mostly.
* Peskin falls in the second round, those voters go to Breed, mostly.
* Lurie or Farrell falls in the third round with their voters going to the other.
* The final round pits Breed against either Lurie or Farrell, with the balance being decided by the undecided and by any defectors from the Safari/Peskin first round choices.
* The undecided aren’t happy enough with the status quo to choose Breed now, nor will they be on election day.
* The Safari/Peskin defectors who don’t choose Breed as #2 or #3 will either be wasted votes or votes for the surviving non-Breed candidates.
* The less liberal candidate surviving beats Breed.
Peskin voters are not going to second-choice Breed, you are fundamentally misunderstanding his voters. His voters are going to Lurie (and pointlessly to Safai). This is an anyone-but-Breed election; she is getting almost no second/third rank choices on those ballots. With her unfavorable over 70 percent, she’s going to pick up low single digit support in later rounds.
Hey,
I’m seeing fake polls all over the place.
Setting us up for a ‘surprise’ Breed win in November.
I don’t care
I’ll vote anyway.
h.
“and Daniel Lurie, a Levi Strauss heir and nonprofit CEO,”
Why did Lurie’s name include a descriptor? Why do the readers need to know that he is a ‘Levi Strauss heir’?
Because it explains how he is able to fund his own campaign and refuse any public campaign financing.
“Aaron Peskin, a landlord and incumbent supervisor”
Aaron Peskin is not referenced as such in this article.
Yes, that was your point 😉
I do not believe this poll.
Losers seldom perceive they will lose.
The poll shows City residents leaning center, so one of those 3 will win with ranked choice: Farrel, Laurie or Breed.
Peskin is alone, city residents are clearly tired of the old far- left.